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The article is very interesting, but I have been reading about the impending fall of China for at least the last two decades. So far it hasn't happened. I supp
by Al-Khwarizmi 3y ago
The article is very interesting, but I have been reading about the impending fall of China for at least the last two decades. So far it hasn't happened.
I suppose at some point it will be true, as in Peter and the Wolf, but color me skeptical.
- alephnerd 3y agoAnyone who's calling a "fall" is being disingenuous. There absolutely is a massive economic slowdown in China. That said, it will NOT lead to a Soviet style collapse. That said, a persistent long term slowdown will absolutely lead to overcompensation on the foreign policy side, as past experiences with Russia and Turkey have shown.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago5% growth when you're expecting 8% is a problem, but it's a problem a lot of countries would like to have. And 5% growth during a time of population decline is even more impressive since it means per capita growth is even larger.
- The_Colonel 3y agoChina's population declined by about 0.2% compared to its peak, pretty irrelevant for GDP so far.
- bryanlarsen 3y agoIt's more significant when compared to Western countries that experience population growth. For example, in 2023 the US's top line GDP growth was about 25% higher than its per capita GDP growth.
- The_Colonel 3y agoWhere have you been reading about China's "fall", apart from maybe Peter Zeihan? (who is a sensationalist on everything) I have been reading about China's structural problems which might in the long term lead to slower growth / stagnation, and that seems to fit reality well.