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For your thumb tack example you can at least do some simulation. My reading of the article is that the author argues that it’s totally reasonable to use 5% when
by wodenokoto 3y ago
For your thumb tack example you can at least do some simulation. My reading of the article is that the author argues that it’s totally reasonable to use 5% when you have no idea but want to sound more precise than “I feel like it’s unlikely”
- Vecr 3y agoYou can reverse engineer probabilities (or P-words if you don't want to call them that) from the bets you would make. Obviously there's a problem there if everyone's dead, but they don't have to be literal bets. Someone could estimate your P-word of doom by what you say and how you think about things/act. The article argues that it's fine for you to just come out and say it.