China was in no shape to challenge US hegemony a few decades ago, now they are. China wasn't as militant and nationalistic under Deng, now they are. Japan in 1

China was in no shape to challenge US hegemony a few decades ago, now they are. China wasn't as militant and nationalistic under Deng, now they are. Japan in 1940 was a very different beast to Japan in 1950, and it would be misguided to think Japan would launch another war in the 1950s just because "they" recently did that. "They" (values, democratic governance, free press, etc) change over time. You should go straight to an analysis of the values and system of the current people that live there, instead of whatever their ancestors did. If a country starts talking like Japan did in the 1930s, even if they have no history of war, then I will assign a high probability that they will start behaving like Japan of the 1940s. They are humans just like the Japanese were humans and will produce the same behavior given the same bad ideas and circumstances. Modern China is a revisionist power (much like Russia) with the capability to challenge the US. For these reasons, them launching an invasion of Taiwan is plausible. It is against their economic self-interest, but that doesn't completely deter nations from launching wars. National security concerns and national pride can trump economic concerns.