What you say makes some sense, but I can think of some situations that would invalidate it, and there are probably others, but this is what I can think of right

What you say makes some sense, but I can think of some situations that would invalidate it, and there are probably others, but this is what I can think of right now: (1) What if China were to believe the war was "winnable" eg, they could take over so quickly due to overwhelming military power or due to being welcomed by some of the population or something, as to avoid huge damage. Then it wouldn't matter. BTW, this is what is meant by "deterrence", and in US domestic policy, the china-related fearmongering is clearly aimed at increasing deterrence.... which could only possibly decrease the chance of conflict even more, so what's the problem? (2) What if China's leadership were to believe a distraction is necessary from domestic politics? Then, also, these mutual investments wouldn't matter.