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"because East Asia devolves into a war stricken basket case" The past decade of American media has been promoting this new cold war narrative as if there is in

"because East Asia devolves into a war stricken basket case" The past decade of American media has been promoting this new cold war narrative as if there is inevitably going to be a major war with China. If there is war in East Asia then the whole international economic system will collapse, people will be starving in the streets. That's if it's not a nuclear Armageddon and we're left to rubbing two sticks together. Nobody will care about chips if there is a war. That will be really far down the list of actual concerns The world is so interconnected and everyone depends on everyone so much that there is basically no point in planning for this scenario

_heimdall 3y ago
> The world is so interconnected and everyone depends on everyone so much that there is basically no point in planning for this scenario There's always a point in planning for a scenario if you think the risk is high enough and there is something you can do to better prepare for it. In this scenario, the ones most impacted immediately will be the ones most dependent of the global economy. If you can't get the basics like food, water, and shelter if war with China breaks out then sure you'll be in a bad spot. But is it really an impossible task to prepare at all?
- contrarian1234 3y ago
  I mean .. if you want to waste a bunch of money and prepare for an unlikely war then it still doesn't make sense to worry about chips. You probably should build fallout shelters and secure things like domestic fertilizer production and the make sure agricultural equipment can be entirely made domestically Even in the most benign case, if China is for whatever reason peacefully cut off from the global economy and we haven't been nukes into the stone age - having to move back to 22nm chips is going to be the least of our problems. To put it in perspective.. this is going to be a world where we no longer have cellphones and toiletpaper (b/c those are all made in China) and most equipment/machinery/refrigerators/washing-machines/cars/trains will overnight become at least in part unrepairable. Basically ever sector of the economy depends at least in some small part on the Chinese supply chain.
  - _heimdall 3y ago
    Preparing for supply chain issues during wartime and peacetime look very similar other than defence spending. Simplifying supply chains and reducing dependencies helps whether your concern is war, a pandemic, or economic change. We put chips in almost everything today. If we can live without chips them so be it, but assuming we'd rather not feel the full impact of have zero chips for whatever reason we'd be smart to start building some level of manufacturing capability at home. We already saw toilet paper supply chains crumble and all it took was a (potentially over-) reaction to a potential global pandemic. It wasn't a war with China that made it clear we really could do some good with a simplified toilet paper supply chain, it was scientific concern amplified but scared/concerned politicians and herd mentality when the public realized they weren't prepared for such a possible future.
    - contrarian1234 3y ago
      What your proposing would basically entail countries indefinitely subsidizing a huge fraction of their economies so that everything is made domestically. You would just keep doing it and keep waiting for a war. It would be incredibly inefficient and make things significantly more expensive and your nation would fall behind (see North Korea). More importantly, by eliminating economic interdependence you create a much more dangerous world where demagogues can easily start wars b/c they can be sustained by these independent domestic economies But even in this horror parallel reality of yours, cutting edge chips would still be very far down the list of things that are important. Can you provide basic sanitation without anything made in China? Transport? Medical care? Can you feed your nation? Can you maintain your nations basic infrastructure? Having to go back a few generations in chips is just irrelevant at the scale of disaster you're envisioning
      - _heimdall 3y ago
        Why do you assume it must be driven by subsidies? Changes in demand can move the needle too, if our consumers prioritize domestic production it wouldn't matter if technically someone could import it for cheaper. If you are going government intervention, they could reach for tariffs and import taxes rather than subsidies. Forcing prices high enough for domestic production is painful at first but would eventually work all the same. I fully agree with you that too much of our current infrastructure is dependent on China and other countries. It isn't really a problem if we aren't concerned with major shocks though. It sounds like the difference is that I see the risks high enough to invest in domestic production if possible, you see that solution as unrealistic and that we're better off avoiding/preventing all shocks.
spadufed 3y ago
In the modern world, chips are how you fight wars.
staunton 3y ago
> The world is so interconnected and everyone depends on everyone so much that there is basically no point in planning for this scenario This sentiment was very prevalent right before WWI.

_heimdall 3y ago

> The world is so interconnected and everyone depends on everyone so much that there is basically no point in planning for this scenario There's always a point in planning for a scenario if you think the risk is high enough and there is something you can do to better prepare for it. In this scenario, the ones most impacted immediately will be the ones most dependent of the global economy. If you can't get the basics like food, water, and shelter if war with China breaks out then sure you'll be in a bad spot. But is it really an impossible task to prepare at all?

contrarian1234 3y ago
I mean .. if you want to waste a bunch of money and prepare for an unlikely war then it still doesn't make sense to worry about chips. You probably should build fallout shelters and secure things like domestic fertilizer production and the make sure agricultural equipment can be entirely made domestically Even in the most benign case, if China is for whatever reason peacefully cut off from the global economy and we haven't been nukes into the stone age - having to move back to 22nm chips is going to be the least of our problems. To put it in perspective.. this is going to be a world where we no longer have cellphones and toiletpaper (b/c those are all made in China) and most equipment/machinery/refrigerators/washing-machines/cars/trains will overnight become at least in part unrepairable. Basically ever sector of the economy depends at least in some small part on the Chinese supply chain.
- _heimdall 3y ago
  Preparing for supply chain issues during wartime and peacetime look very similar other than defence spending. Simplifying supply chains and reducing dependencies helps whether your concern is war, a pandemic, or economic change. We put chips in almost everything today. If we can live without chips them so be it, but assuming we'd rather not feel the full impact of have zero chips for whatever reason we'd be smart to start building some level of manufacturing capability at home. We already saw toilet paper supply chains crumble and all it took was a (potentially over-) reaction to a potential global pandemic. It wasn't a war with China that made it clear we really could do some good with a simplified toilet paper supply chain, it was scientific concern amplified but scared/concerned politicians and herd mentality when the public realized they weren't prepared for such a possible future.
  - contrarian1234 3y ago
    What your proposing would basically entail countries indefinitely subsidizing a huge fraction of their economies so that everything is made domestically. You would just keep doing it and keep waiting for a war. It would be incredibly inefficient and make things significantly more expensive and your nation would fall behind (see North Korea). More importantly, by eliminating economic interdependence you create a much more dangerous world where demagogues can easily start wars b/c they can be sustained by these independent domestic economies But even in this horror parallel reality of yours, cutting edge chips would still be very far down the list of things that are important. Can you provide basic sanitation without anything made in China? Transport? Medical care? Can you feed your nation? Can you maintain your nations basic infrastructure? Having to go back a few generations in chips is just irrelevant at the scale of disaster you're envisioning
    - _heimdall 3y ago
      Why do you assume it must be driven by subsidies? Changes in demand can move the needle too, if our consumers prioritize domestic production it wouldn't matter if technically someone could import it for cheaper. If you are going government intervention, they could reach for tariffs and import taxes rather than subsidies. Forcing prices high enough for domestic production is painful at first but would eventually work all the same. I fully agree with you that too much of our current infrastructure is dependent on China and other countries. It isn't really a problem if we aren't concerned with major shocks though. It sounds like the difference is that I see the risks high enough to invest in domestic production if possible, you see that solution as unrealistic and that we're better off avoiding/preventing all shocks.

spadufed 3y ago

In the modern world, chips are how you fight wars.

staunton 3y ago

> The world is so interconnected and everyone depends on everyone so much that there is basically no point in planning for this scenario This sentiment was very prevalent right before WWI.