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I have Taiwanese contacts. They say that roughly 30% of Taiwanese hate China, 30% would be happy to reunite, and 40% could go either way. It seems like suicide

I have Taiwanese contacts. They say that roughly 30% of Taiwanese hate China, 30% would be happy to reunite, and 40% could go either way. It seems like suicide to risk WW3 to appease 30% of "never China" hardliners. And the US is doing its damnedest to convert that 40% so-so group into "never China" hardliners.

yorwba 3y ago
The breakdown in representative surveys https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 is more like 8.4% for unification now or later (mostly later), 25.3% for independence now or later (mostly later), 61.1% for not moving in either direction for now or forever. The big surge in pro-independence sentiment 2019 was due to the Hong Kong National Security Law. Nothing the US does is likely to move the needle nearly as much.
gorjusborg 3y ago
It is interesting that you consider invasion of Taiwan by China as inert, but involvement of others, that 'risks WW3'. Seems to me that invasion of foreign countries is pretty provocative.
- simonblack 3y ago
  Seems to me that invasion of foreign countries is pretty provocative. Except that The Peoples' Republic of China and the Republic of China are recognised by 95% (or thereabouts) of the world, including the US, as 'One China'. An 'invasion' of China by China makes as much sense as the US 'invading' the US island of Manhattan. Why would China , or the US for that matter, invade themselves and damage valuable infrastructure, commercial property and manufacturing capacity? The only reason for China to take military action against one of their islands is if that island declares Independence. You know, like the Southern Confederate States did in 1861. I remember the North didn't bother to take any military action then.
  - hackerlight 3y ago
    Recognized by everyone except the people that actually matter which are those that live there and don't wish to live under an autocracy.
    - scrubs 3y ago
      Agree. Quoting from above: "The breakdown in representative surveys https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 is more like 8.4% for unification now or later (mostly later), 25.3% for independence now or later (mostly later), 61.1% for not moving in either direction for now or forever" These numbers will change considerably if China invades against China. The 61.1% are people who merely hope nothing changes ... they're in a bit of denial in other words. Hong Kong is not particularly happy with what the Chinese did ... there's no second system there.
      - hackerlight 3y ago
        People confuse coercion with voluntary statements. The reason liberal democracies pay lip service to this insane notion that 20 million people must live under an autocracy is because we are fucking scared of WW3. That's it. We do not believe in this disgusting nationalist project that desires to subjugate the will of millions of people in the name of restoring the homeland or some other sociopathic blood and soil fantasy.
  - keybored 3y ago
    But the wide agreement on “One China” is like a Don’t Ask Don’t Tell situation, no? Parties like the US agree to a de jure “One China” in order to not rock the boat on the de facto “Two China” status quo.
- keybored 3y ago
  If you really want to simplify this down to whoever shoots first is the provocateur (no precipitating cause), you still can have multiple parties who “risk WW3”: - PRC: risks WW3 if they invade Taiwan - Taiwan: in turn risks WW3 if they fight back - USA: in turns risks WW3 if they help Taiwan fight back…
rstuart4133 3y ago
Having visited Israel, I'd put the numbers who "just want to get along and get on with their lives" on both sides even higher. Watching a group Ultra-Orthodox Jews having a sign along in the street lead by a Arab guitarist busker is a sight I won't forget. The smiles on all sides were radiant. Ditto for the citizens in Russia and Ukraine. The hell in both places wasn't created by "ordinary people". And if China and Taiwan go to war, I'd be stunned if the citizens on both sides would support if they knew what comes next. The leaders on the one making the first move will of course go to great lengths to ensure they don't, until it becomes "us or them".

yorwba 3y ago

The breakdown in representative surveys https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 is more like 8.4% for unification now or later (mostly later), 25.3% for independence now or later (mostly later), 61.1% for not moving in either direction for now or forever. The big surge in pro-independence sentiment 2019 was due to the Hong Kong National Security Law. Nothing the US does is likely to move the needle nearly as much.

gorjusborg 3y ago

It is interesting that you consider invasion of Taiwan by China as inert, but involvement of others, that 'risks WW3'. Seems to me that invasion of foreign countries is pretty provocative.

simonblack 3y ago
Seems to me that invasion of foreign countries is pretty provocative. Except that The Peoples' Republic of China and the Republic of China are recognised by 95% (or thereabouts) of the world, including the US, as 'One China'. An 'invasion' of China by China makes as much sense as the US 'invading' the US island of Manhattan. Why would China , or the US for that matter, invade themselves and damage valuable infrastructure, commercial property and manufacturing capacity? The only reason for China to take military action against one of their islands is if that island declares Independence. You know, like the Southern Confederate States did in 1861. I remember the North didn't bother to take any military action then.
- hackerlight 3y ago
  Recognized by everyone except the people that actually matter which are those that live there and don't wish to live under an autocracy.
  - scrubs 3y ago
    Agree. Quoting from above: "The breakdown in representative surveys https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 is more like 8.4% for unification now or later (mostly later), 25.3% for independence now or later (mostly later), 61.1% for not moving in either direction for now or forever" These numbers will change considerably if China invades against China. The 61.1% are people who merely hope nothing changes ... they're in a bit of denial in other words. Hong Kong is not particularly happy with what the Chinese did ... there's no second system there.
    - hackerlight 3y ago
      People confuse coercion with voluntary statements. The reason liberal democracies pay lip service to this insane notion that 20 million people must live under an autocracy is because we are fucking scared of WW3. That's it. We do not believe in this disgusting nationalist project that desires to subjugate the will of millions of people in the name of restoring the homeland or some other sociopathic blood and soil fantasy.
- keybored 3y ago
  But the wide agreement on “One China” is like a Don’t Ask Don’t Tell situation, no? Parties like the US agree to a de jure “One China” in order to not rock the boat on the de facto “Two China” status quo.
keybored 3y ago
If you really want to simplify this down to whoever shoots first is the provocateur (no precipitating cause), you still can have multiple parties who “risk WW3”: - PRC: risks WW3 if they invade Taiwan - Taiwan: in turn risks WW3 if they fight back - USA: in turns risks WW3 if they help Taiwan fight back…

rstuart4133 3y ago

Having visited Israel, I'd put the numbers who "just want to get along and get on with their lives" on both sides even higher. Watching a group Ultra-Orthodox Jews having a sign along in the street lead by a Arab guitarist busker is a sight I won't forget. The smiles on all sides were radiant. Ditto for the citizens in Russia and Ukraine. The hell in both places wasn't created by "ordinary people". And if China and Taiwan go to war, I'd be stunned if the citizens on both sides would support if they knew what comes next. The leaders on the one making the first move will of course go to great lengths to ensure they don't, until it becomes "us or them".