5 ms·

I'm not a NATO strategist or anything, so I'm adding this as a child comment, but I think the big story in the GPS/aviation world these days is probably Russia'

I'm not a NATO strategist or anything, so I'm adding this as a child comment, but I think the big story in the GPS/aviation world these days is probably Russia's n̵e̵a̵r̵-̵c̵o̵n̵s̵t̵a̵n̵t̵ frequent jamming of GPS over Poland, Finland, Sweden, Estonia, and Lithuania. Degrading and even neutralizing strategic infrastructure in EU and NATO countries, significantly affecting commercial aviation at the least, is a big deal. There's some reluctance to say it's Russia doing the jamming, though that seems to be the consensus among experts. I assume governments know with 100% confidence who it is.

tommymanstrom 3y ago
OSINT by Markus Jonsson (https://x.com/auonsson?s=21&t=L_vyKMe6Kz1tXjeWTeGk3g https://x.com/auonsson?s=21&t=L_vyKMe6Kz1tXjeWTeGk3g) has been tracking this for some time now.
FpUser 3y ago
>"There's some reluctance to say it's Russia doing the jamming, though that seems to be the consensus among experts." Why the reluctance? I do not think there is much love lost in regards to Russia.
- jjwiseman 3y ago
  Well, if you identify them then you might have to do something about it. But it's not clear there's much to be done. Sometimes it's easier to deny or just not mention that someone is acting in a hostile way. The example I often think of is Iran firing missiles at U.S. warships during Operation Praying Mantis, and then, as Wikipedia puts it: "The Pentagon and the Reagan Administration later denied that any Silkworm missile attacks took place, possibly in order to keep the situation from escalating further - as they had promised publicly that any such attacks would merit retaliation against targets on Iranian soil." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis
  - jojobas 3y ago
    The situation with Russia is well past escalation by accusation of civil aircraft jamming. After all, they've pretty much stolen all planes they had under lease from Western owners. Appeasement of someone like Putin is always a mistake. So far every time the West calls his bluff he cowardly pretends nothing happened, be it HIMARS, Storm Shadow and HARM missile shipments, tank shipments, AWACS support, you name it. He only attacked Ukraine because he hoped to win in a week, and this wouldn't have happened if the West armed Ukraine earlier. The desire not to escalate with Putin cost Europe a war.
    - zuppy 3y ago
      every few weeks they're threttening to nuke some country, i think there's nothing that can be called excalation at this point (except the obvious idea to retaliate with guns, but that's a very bad idea).
      - cpursley 3y ago
        Can you provide sources where they actually threaten to nuke anyone out of the blue (excluding Medvedev, he’s especially nuts)? All I can find is them clarifying their nuclear policy when pressed about it (would only use in situation of existential threat). Which seems less bellicose than US policy (as the US changed ours not long ago, seemingly allowing for first strike which is pretty insane): https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-12/focus/bidens-disappointing-nuclear-posture-review https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-12/focus/bidens-disappo...
        jojobas 3y ago
        Then you remember they called Ukraine in NATO an existential threat, and wiped their butts with international treaties that were supposed to be much more set in stone than some half-official nuclear doctrine. However, this is all playing chicken. Whenever they were facing actual opposition, they backed down.
        3y ago
- posix86 3y ago
  Sticking to the truth & what you really know, and not scape goating?
morkalork 3y ago
Does this affect everyone there? Google maps on people's phones etc?
- jjwiseman 3y ago
  No, not unless you're really close to the jammer. If you're on the ground the horizon is typically a lot closer than the jammer is (it's speculated that Kaliningrad is the location of at least some of the jammers affecting the Baltic), so you don't have line of sight to it and you're not affected. Aircraft are flying way up where they _do_ have line of sight to the jammer, so their receivers are impacted.
jwr 3y ago
It should be a big story, as should be the fact that Russia invaded a peaceful neighboring country and keeps murdering, raping and torturing its residents. But somehow much of the world pretends not to notice and only does whatever is convenient at the moment (buy Russian oil/gas, do business in Russia, stay "neutral", etc). I find it incredibly depressing, I thought that surely in the 2020s our civilization would have progressed further. Russia will play the slowly boiled frog game to their advantage — GPS jamming is just the beginning. We will likely soon see further small incursions, each one ever so slightly larger than the previous one. And we'll hear Mr Scholz say something about doing something, but we won't see him actually do anything. Mr Macron will use grand words and do nothing as well. Austria will "declare neutrality" (easy to do when you have other countries as buffers from the aggressor). As someone currently living in the EU close to Ukraine, I find all this very sad.
- mistermann 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - pc86 3y ago
    I haven't the slightest idea what point you're trying to make, except perhaps arguing that the GP should for some reason go to Ukraine and fight if they think the invasion was wrong?
    - remram 3y ago
      Yes, if that's what they expect "the world" to do lest it "only does whatever is convenient".
    - mistermann 3y ago
      >> But somehow much of the world pretends not to notice and only does whatever is convenient at the moment (buy Russian oil/gas, do business in Russia, stay "neutral", etc). I find it incredibly depressing, I thought that surely in the 2020s our civilization would have progressed further. > I haven't the slightest idea what point you're trying to make This human was criticizing other humans for "pretending", but they themselves are pretending (well, technically something more like engaging in ~hallucination, Naive Realism based cognition, Meme Magic, etc). They desire and recommend that others (the members of their various outgroups I suspect, purely coincidentally) think better, but if one was to ask them to do the same, they would assert that that is a false accusation / invalid request (because their thinking "is" without substantial flaw, ~"thinking perfectly is stupid, why are you suggesting it lol", not realizing that no such suggestion was made). ~All humans behave this way (I dare you to respond, so a demonstration can be made that proves my point (though it would be fairly pointless outside of having fun, at least at this point in time)), due to the conditioning we receive from birth, and every single day of our lives, all without our realization. I was kinda making a joke, but it is a joke in at least two ways.

tommymanstrom 3y ago

OSINT by Markus Jonsson (https://x.com/auonsson?s=21&t=L_vyKMe6Kz1tXjeWTeGk3g https://x.com/auonsson?s=21&t=L_vyKMe6Kz1tXjeWTeGk3g) has been tracking this for some time now.

FpUser 3y ago

>"There's some reluctance to say it's Russia doing the jamming, though that seems to be the consensus among experts." Why the reluctance? I do not think there is much love lost in regards to Russia.

jjwiseman 3y ago
Well, if you identify them then you might have to do something about it. But it's not clear there's much to be done. Sometimes it's easier to deny or just not mention that someone is acting in a hostile way. The example I often think of is Iran firing missiles at U.S. warships during Operation Praying Mantis, and then, as Wikipedia puts it: "The Pentagon and the Reagan Administration later denied that any Silkworm missile attacks took place, possibly in order to keep the situation from escalating further - as they had promised publicly that any such attacks would merit retaliation against targets on Iranian soil." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis
- jojobas 3y ago
  The situation with Russia is well past escalation by accusation of civil aircraft jamming. After all, they've pretty much stolen all planes they had under lease from Western owners. Appeasement of someone like Putin is always a mistake. So far every time the West calls his bluff he cowardly pretends nothing happened, be it HIMARS, Storm Shadow and HARM missile shipments, tank shipments, AWACS support, you name it. He only attacked Ukraine because he hoped to win in a week, and this wouldn't have happened if the West armed Ukraine earlier. The desire not to escalate with Putin cost Europe a war.
  - zuppy 3y ago
    every few weeks they're threttening to nuke some country, i think there's nothing that can be called excalation at this point (except the obvious idea to retaliate with guns, but that's a very bad idea).
    - cpursley 3y ago
      Can you provide sources where they actually threaten to nuke anyone out of the blue (excluding Medvedev, he’s especially nuts)? All I can find is them clarifying their nuclear policy when pressed about it (would only use in situation of existential threat). Which seems less bellicose than US policy (as the US changed ours not long ago, seemingly allowing for first strike which is pretty insane): https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-12/focus/bidens-disappointing-nuclear-posture-review https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-12/focus/bidens-disappo...
      - jojobas 3y ago
        Then you remember they called Ukraine in NATO an existential threat, and wiped their butts with international treaties that were supposed to be much more set in stone than some half-official nuclear doctrine. However, this is all playing chicken. Whenever they were facing actual opposition, they backed down.
        3y ago
posix86 3y ago
Sticking to the truth & what you really know, and not scape goating?

morkalork 3y ago

Does this affect everyone there? Google maps on people's phones etc?

jjwiseman 3y ago
No, not unless you're really close to the jammer. If you're on the ground the horizon is typically a lot closer than the jammer is (it's speculated that Kaliningrad is the location of at least some of the jammers affecting the Baltic), so you don't have line of sight to it and you're not affected. Aircraft are flying way up where they _do_ have line of sight to the jammer, so their receivers are impacted.

jwr 3y ago

It should be a big story, as should be the fact that Russia invaded a peaceful neighboring country and keeps murdering, raping and torturing its residents. But somehow much of the world pretends not to notice and only does whatever is convenient at the moment (buy Russian oil/gas, do business in Russia, stay "neutral", etc). I find it incredibly depressing, I thought that surely in the 2020s our civilization would have progressed further. Russia will play the slowly boiled frog game to their advantage — GPS jamming is just the beginning. We will likely soon see further small incursions, each one ever so slightly larger than the previous one. And we'll hear Mr Scholz say something about doing something, but we won't see him actually do anything. Mr Macron will use grand words and do nothing as well. Austria will "declare neutrality" (easy to do when you have other countries as buffers from the aggressor). As someone currently living in the EU close to Ukraine, I find all this very sad.

mistermann 3y ago
[flagged]
- pc86 3y ago
  I haven't the slightest idea what point you're trying to make, except perhaps arguing that the GP should for some reason go to Ukraine and fight if they think the invasion was wrong?
  - remram 3y ago
    Yes, if that's what they expect "the world" to do lest it "only does whatever is convenient".
  - mistermann 3y ago
    >> But somehow much of the world pretends not to notice and only does whatever is convenient at the moment (buy Russian oil/gas, do business in Russia, stay "neutral", etc). I find it incredibly depressing, I thought that surely in the 2020s our civilization would have progressed further. > I haven't the slightest idea what point you're trying to make This human was criticizing other humans for "pretending", but they themselves are pretending (well, technically something more like engaging in ~hallucination, Naive Realism based cognition, Meme Magic, etc). They desire and recommend that others (the members of their various outgroups I suspect, purely coincidentally) think better, but if one was to ask them to do the same, they would assert that that is a false accusation / invalid request (because their thinking "is" without substantial flaw, ~"thinking perfectly is stupid, why are you suggesting it lol", not realizing that no such suggestion was made). ~All humans behave this way (I dare you to respond, so a demonstration can be made that proves my point (though it would be fairly pointless outside of having fun, at least at this point in time)), due to the conditioning we receive from birth, and every single day of our lives, all without our realization. I was kinda making a joke, but it is a joke in at least two ways.