4 ms·
A similar fun example is the distribution of Elo ratings on a chess site, e.g. here's the weekly distribution on Lichess for Bullet games (less than 3 minutes):
by nominatronic 3y ago
A similar fun example is the distribution of Elo ratings on a chess site, e.g. here's the weekly distribution on Lichess for Bullet games (less than 3 minutes):
https://lichess.org/stat/rating/distribution/bullet https://lichess.org/stat/rating/distribution/bullet
It's easy to understand why this happens:
- Player ratings will fluctuate by small amounts as they win and lose individual games.
- People are happy to stop playing when their rating is at e.g. 1503, but if it's 1497, they'd rather play just one more game than leave it that way.
- At any given time, most accounts are not playing, so the distribution shows a bias towards values just over a 100 Elo threshold.
The other neat thing is that you can see this effect reduce as you look at longer time controls:
Blitz (less than 10 min): https://lichess.org/stat/rating/distribution/blitz https://lichess.org/stat/rating/distribution/blitz
Rapid (less than 30 min): https://lichess.org/stat/rating/distribution/rapid https://lichess.org/stat/rating/distribution/rapid
Which makes sense because the time and effort of gambling just one more game to get the rating back over the line is higher at the longer time controls.
- chatmasta 3y ago> At any given time, most accounts are not playing, so the distribution shows a bias towards values just over a 100 Elo threshold FYI, that graph only includes players who were active (played a game) this week.
- nominatronic 3y agoYes, but that doesn't change the fact that out of all the accounts included, most of them won't be actively playing games right now.
- chatmasta 3y agoIn fact none of them will be, because it's computed by analyzing the rolling last 7 days, and each accounts "ranking" is whatever their ranking was at the end of that period (i.e. "now," more or less). Basically I'm not sure why you're saying that leads to a bias toward "slightly above 100." Ohh... unless you meant slightly above a multiple of 100. I see now. Because people stop playing when they hit a milestone, right.
- noqc 3y agoHaha, guilty. I put my rapid rating above 2k and haven't played in months since then.
- isolli 3y agoWhen I dip below 600, I usually get angry and play more, then lose and quit even further down.
- mananaysiempre 3y ago(That’s basically how the election falsification example in TFA works, too: a lot of individuals targeting a subjectively nice metric without cooperating with one another.)
- s_dev 3y agoOr you can look at the cut off date of competitive sports players and athletes. If January 1st is the cut off for age there will be a disproportionate number of players born in December. If it's June 1st many of the players will have birthdates in May and April.