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I'm just super curious where these chips will be in 10 years - not the state of the chip design - these physical chips. It will be interesting when chips such

I'm just super curious where these chips will be in 10 years - not the state of the chip design - these physical chips. It will be interesting when chips such as this percolate down to single folks using one of these to just run their home AI node. When every building has just one of these in their core building AI system that allows for all the regular talk to your smart home and have it intelligently accommodate your inferred needs/intentions. Its possible today - but I mean on a wide scale.

syrgian 3y ago
I am not hopeful at all that it will go that way. Instead, I expect those buildings to invest in having the fastest, most stable internet connection with added redundancy and everything will be fully centralized in datacenters.
- samstave 3y ago
  Fair - I guess these will be relegated to 'Evil Lair Under Ground Bunker'(TM) types - like Zucks Hawaii compound's internal datacenter on-prem. EDIT: the 10-year is just a random number. And while these chips will obviously eventually be obsoleted as far as their cutting-edge - that doesnt remove the usefulness of such a chip for as long it can logic electrons. So even by any future standard - as few of these thrown in more a consumer space will be adding of value for a long time, one would think. I'd be really interested in knowing about fab re-tooling. I recall one night at Intel in 1997 or so - I stepped onto the balcony to have a smoke at about 1am. There was another guy there who was in finance and we had a similar smoke schedule - and we would chat. He was lamenting about the difficulty in his work was to re-work a lot of DB schemas because some of the numbers he had to entire as far as finances, were too large for the fields. I never forgot that - or a common trope that was thrown around intel at the time - I was in my early 20s and was focused on video games when at Intel - so I didnt get to follow along with this: "Its cheaper to just build a new fab than to retool one for the next iteration of processor" -- so I wonder just how much ancillary waste happens these days with each new chip iteration/evolution. Meaning - all the amounts of resources that went into the fab to make such a chip - and where these wind up in their lifecycle. The newest machines to make the ultra EUV chips are ~$380 million a piece (which is nothing these days on a scale - but on a unit basis, thats a Fton. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/inside-asml-the-company-advanced-chipmakers-use-for-euv-lithography.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/inside-asml-the-company-adva... https://i.imgur.com/say0bnv.png https://i.imgur.com/say0bnv.png
Cthulhu_ 3y ago
They wouldn't, because in 10 years time the consumer-grade equivalent will out-power this model, assuming the increase in performance and decrease in cost persists. I'm sure there's a few people that have e.g. an intel itanium from 10 years ago in their home lab, but those don't hold a candle to current-day consumer grade CPUs.

syrgian 3y ago

I am not hopeful at all that it will go that way. Instead, I expect those buildings to invest in having the fastest, most stable internet connection with added redundancy and everything will be fully centralized in datacenters.

samstave 3y ago
Fair - I guess these will be relegated to 'Evil Lair Under Ground Bunker'(TM) types - like Zucks Hawaii compound's internal datacenter on-prem. EDIT: the 10-year is just a random number. And while these chips will obviously eventually be obsoleted as far as their cutting-edge - that doesnt remove the usefulness of such a chip for as long it can logic electrons. So even by any future standard - as few of these thrown in more a consumer space will be adding of value for a long time, one would think. I'd be really interested in knowing about fab re-tooling. I recall one night at Intel in 1997 or so - I stepped onto the balcony to have a smoke at about 1am. There was another guy there who was in finance and we had a similar smoke schedule - and we would chat. He was lamenting about the difficulty in his work was to re-work a lot of DB schemas because some of the numbers he had to entire as far as finances, were too large for the fields. I never forgot that - or a common trope that was thrown around intel at the time - I was in my early 20s and was focused on video games when at Intel - so I didnt get to follow along with this: "Its cheaper to just build a new fab than to retool one for the next iteration of processor" -- so I wonder just how much ancillary waste happens these days with each new chip iteration/evolution. Meaning - all the amounts of resources that went into the fab to make such a chip - and where these wind up in their lifecycle. The newest machines to make the ultra EUV chips are ~$380 million a piece (which is nothing these days on a scale - but on a unit basis, thats a Fton. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/inside-asml-the-company-advanced-chipmakers-use-for-euv-lithography.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/inside-asml-the-company-adva... https://i.imgur.com/say0bnv.png https://i.imgur.com/say0bnv.png

Cthulhu_ 3y ago

They wouldn't, because in 10 years time the consumer-grade equivalent will out-power this model, assuming the increase in performance and decrease in cost persists. I'm sure there's a few people that have e.g. an intel itanium from 10 years ago in their home lab, but those don't hold a candle to current-day consumer grade CPUs.