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The European situation is actually a very close mirror of the American one. Europe lost one option (Soyuz) because of war, retired production of a second option
by perihelions 3y ago
The European situation is actually a very close mirror of the American one. Europe lost one option (Soyuz) because of war, retired production of a second option prematurely (Ariane 5), and has development problems delaying a third option (Ariane 6) by multiple years. America's in the same boat: we're phasing out one Russian option (Atlas V, which relies on Russian engines); retired production of a second option (Delta IV); and have a third option years behind schedule (Vulcan).
SpaceX is the only outlier in the pattern. Without SpaceX, the US would be in almost the same position as Europe right now. So I'm skeptical about explanations suggesting some deep systemic differences are at work here.
- nyokodo 3y ago> Without SpaceX, the US would be in almost the same position as Europe right now. Yes, without decades of public and private capital and other NASA resources supporting commercial space startups that bred, amongst other highly innovative companies, a world beating launch service and global low-latency satellite constellation the USA would be in the same boat as Europe. That is a big systemic difference! The USA has a much more consistent emphasis on private enterprise backing up state capacity that periodically inject rapid innovation and makes things cheaper even if similar forces to Europe gradually entrench monopolies that slow things down and makes them more expensive.
- snowpid 3y agoso you think there is no private space industry in Europe? Do you work in that field?
- TMWNN 3y agoCompared to the US's SpaceX, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, Sierra, and others, no, Europe has no private space industry to one order of magnitude. (Spare me the talk about how Arianespace and Airbus are "private".) Rocket Lab could have chosen Australia to move to. It could have moved to Canada, or to an ESA member nation and thus gain access to Kourou. But it chose the US despite the ample existing competition there.
- 627467 3y agoEuropeans don't need private enterprise/initiative. We can rely on the grand vision and foresight of state institutions who always make timely, sustainable and efficient decisions.
- extraduder_ire 3y agoI still think it's a shame that falcon 9s probably won't get launched out of french guyana. (for ITAR reasons, and/or turnaround time) It was a really nice place to launch soyuz rockets out of.