I think it's definitely going to be done by 2040, 2030 is a maybe though. I'm a bit skeptical about using LLMs as the basis for AGI - you would call a human con

I think it's definitely going to be done by 2040, 2030 is a maybe though. I'm a bit skeptical about using LLMs as the basis for AGI - you would call a human conscious even if they had never learned a language in their life. Maybe some kind of model trained on audio/video with a video-based "internal monologue" could be more likely to achieve it. But by 2040 I think we'll have the capabilities to simulate every neuron in a human brain, and that will get us undeniable AGI, unless intelligence comes from some other source that we haven't discovered yet.