6 ms·

I made a script last year that scraped LEGO pricing data from their website. Besides finding out that the Bugatti Bolide Technic set is a pretty good deal as a

I made a script last year that scraped LEGO pricing data from their website. Besides finding out that the Bugatti Bolide Technic set is a pretty good deal as a parts bag, I found that there's only a weak correlation between set size and PPP. The Dots sets throw a wrench in things, of course, and large Technic sets often have expensive electronic and pneumatic parts that must be considered. My conclusion was that PPP is useful as a bargain-hunting tool, but not as a model for broad price analysis. Here's that for anyone interested: https://old.reddit.com/r/lego/comments/1328f52/detailed_lego_priceperpiece_analysis_now_with/ https://old.reddit.com/r/lego/comments/1328f52/detailed_lego...

bombcar 3y ago
Just like the article, you really have to correct for outliers to make PPP work. It's more of a "rule of thumb" that you can use to determine if something is, as you said, a bargain worth getting even if it is outside your main area. Bricklink's "part out" tool is more accurate, but some pieces get priced "wrong" and you have to know enough to determine that.
samstave 3y ago
Epic! thank you! I loved going to Valley Faire Mall in San Jose and scooping parts by the pound. I didnt see any of the lego store by-the-pound model. An interesting method for sus-ing up what parts they had would be looking into the shipments to-from lego entities in NL and USA - sea shipping bills of lading can be found on import yeti (now obviously unless someone has digitized historic bills of lading, etc (and we all know that ship hands (pirates) and long-shoremen (mob) have famously been the definition of corruption - so we can hardly ever trust any bill of lading... So with that in mind though: Lets look at the shipments of LEGO https://i.imgur.com/HgLlBuF.png https://i.imgur.com/HgLlBuF.png Nathan appears to be a top importer of Lego https://i.imgur.com/xYDvko5.png https://i.imgur.com/xYDvko5.png Ships mostly a container a month to LA. https://i.imgur.com/7ZALaMi.png https://i.imgur.com/7ZALaMi.png LegoLand is his customer: https://i.imgur.com/I0oS1wu.png https://i.imgur.com/I0oS1wu.png -- But I cant find out contents of shipment .... AH Check this out: https://i.imgur.com/7CjqVBW.png https://i.imgur.com/7CjqVBW.png So you can see that they are ~1,000 lbs per shipment... rounding up - then remove ~30% for weight of packaging and basically you have 750 pounds of plastic bricks - then apply part existance probability and you can see how much of each part is being imported and a costing idea... We could probably map out all lego sets and shipments with some dilligence. Should also look at the environmental impact of lego long term. its a LOT of plastic.
- dsr_ 3y ago
  Part existence probability changes every couple of months, probably not enough time for you to be able to make good estimates. LEGO tends to get hoarded, resold or donated, not thrown away. I believe I have more than 99% of all the LEGO I or my parents ever bought, going back to 1976 or 7.
  - samstave 3y ago
    I have lost all mine sadly. And I had so much given to me. But my life took me in a path that separated me from all my Lego. :-(
  - londons_explore 3y ago
    > LEGO tends to get hoarded, resold or donated, not thrown away. I doubt this. Outside Lego enthusiasts, most people see it as a children's toy which is probably disgustingly covered in saliva and in no fit state for anyone else to touch. It's one of the first things to go into the trash when more space is needed in the attic.
    - dr_kiszonka 3y ago
      You can put them into a pillowcase and wash in a washing machine. Given how expensive Legos are many people will gladly pick them up from your place, especially if you live in a city. You can look up Buy Nothing and similar groups in your area on FB.
      - londons_explore 3y ago
        Sure, but most people don't know that. So they chuck them out with the rest of the dog-eared teddy bears.
        swores 3y ago
        I'm not convinced you're correct in your belief that most people are like you in this respect. But I don't have evidence to disprove you either.
brazzy 3y ago
> large Technic sets often have expensive electronic and pneumatic parts that must be considered. On the other hand, Technic sets contain large numbers of pins, which are basically worthless.
- oaiey 3y ago
  Exactly. And motors are massively overpriced compared to what is in them.
dclowd9901 3y ago
I had no idea this was even a thing. I always just think “would this set make me $x happy to have?” Of course, the answer is never “no” so I think I probably am not very bargain conscious when it comes to LEGO. And I may have a problem.
- sharkweek 3y ago
  Any advice for someone developing a problem? But seriously, the cost is so worth it for me. As someone who has attention span challenges from time to time, LEGO puts me into a flow state like almost nothing else. I love a good 2-3 night session putting together a big set.
  - TheAceOfHearts 3y ago
    If you want to experience true frustration, try buying one of those 3d metal kits which require a set of pliers to assemble. The instructions are incredibly sparse and an incredible amount of precision is required. If you want a bit of an increased challenge, Gundam models tend to be a bit more difficult than Lego while still feeling stimulating and fun.
    - nuancebydefault 3y ago
      I've built a few metal earth models. It is not very easy, but if you have a good plier set, perfectly doable! It puts you in a flow, just like with Lego, and the result looks nicer than Lego, for less money.
  - aacid 3y ago
    It doesn't work for me, I do have ADD and lego puts me into flow, but after that I kust feel bad that I spent time and money on something without actual value. Thinking I could have spend that time on chores, home improvement or side projects...
    - yard2010 3y ago
      But what do you mean without value you said it makes you feel good that's the best value ever. Money is not like time - if you don't spend money you get to keep it. If you don't spend time, you waste it. You can't do chores all the time so instead of just doing nothing why not doing something that makes you feel good just for the sake of it
garyiskidding 3y ago
This is really cool. Thank you.
sandreas 3y ago
LEGO is indeed pretty expensive these times. Not every set is that bad, but the most cars are not only expensive, but not even the best sets on the market... There is a lot of comparisons, but the most convincing one maybe the LEGO Ferarri (42125) vs. CADA Italian Super Car (C61042W) video[1] of "Held der Steine" (german youtube channel). The LEGO is "parts only" - the CADA is remote controlled with led lights near double the parts of the lego one for the same price. Many of the newer manufacturers are 100% compatible and provide near double the part count for a similar set. Even if some of them are shameless rip-offs and illegal to have in some countries, most of them are smaller companies with great part quality, prints (no stickers) and innovative designs (see CaDA® C61503W AMG One). There is also the world of Trains or Tractors, where LEGO tends to fail every time. There are - CaDa - BlueBrixx - Cobi - fischertechnik - Unico - Mould King - burgkidz - Wange - Sluban - Q-Bricks Just to provide you some alternatives :-) 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXphWMPWsZw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXphWMPWsZw
- beAbU 3y ago
  I don't think you can compare LEGO with not-LEGO... Firstly it feels a little sacrilegious, but religion aside quality is often uncomparable and there was this common meme from my childhood that your parents did not love you if you got knockoff LEGOs. Part of the reason why we buy LEGO is because it's LEGO. Buying some other brand (regardless of quality) does not hit the same way.
  - WilTimSon 3y ago
    But that's a learned behaviour, and one learned specifically thanks to decades of marketing. Sure, LEGO is quality, but it's not some unbeatable gold standard. At some point it simply becomes one of those things where people ask for Coke instead of Pepsi, even if they can't tell them apart - brand loyalty trumping the desire to simply get the product.
    - sandreas 3y ago
      That's what I think. And even if the quality of the parts was less good, it's just not worth the LEGO price in many cases. The video I linked shows the difference.
j45 3y ago
Technics is badass though. Still remember my set.

bombcar 3y ago

Just like the article, you really have to correct for outliers to make PPP work. It's more of a "rule of thumb" that you can use to determine if something is, as you said, a bargain worth getting even if it is outside your main area. Bricklink's "part out" tool is more accurate, but some pieces get priced "wrong" and you have to know enough to determine that.

samstave 3y ago

Epic! thank you! I loved going to Valley Faire Mall in San Jose and scooping parts by the pound. I didnt see any of the lego store by-the-pound model. An interesting method for sus-ing up what parts they had would be looking into the shipments to-from lego entities in NL and USA - sea shipping bills of lading can be found on import yeti (now obviously unless someone has digitized historic bills of lading, etc (and we all know that ship hands (pirates) and long-shoremen (mob) have famously been the definition of corruption - so we can hardly ever trust any bill of lading... So with that in mind though: Lets look at the shipments of LEGO https://i.imgur.com/HgLlBuF.png https://i.imgur.com/HgLlBuF.png Nathan appears to be a top importer of Lego https://i.imgur.com/xYDvko5.png https://i.imgur.com/xYDvko5.png Ships mostly a container a month to LA. https://i.imgur.com/7ZALaMi.png https://i.imgur.com/7ZALaMi.png LegoLand is his customer: https://i.imgur.com/I0oS1wu.png https://i.imgur.com/I0oS1wu.png -- But I cant find out contents of shipment .... AH Check this out: https://i.imgur.com/7CjqVBW.png https://i.imgur.com/7CjqVBW.png So you can see that they are ~1,000 lbs per shipment... rounding up - then remove ~30% for weight of packaging and basically you have 750 pounds of plastic bricks - then apply part existance probability and you can see how much of each part is being imported and a costing idea... We could probably map out all lego sets and shipments with some dilligence. Should also look at the environmental impact of lego long term. its a LOT of plastic.

dsr_ 3y ago
Part existence probability changes every couple of months, probably not enough time for you to be able to make good estimates. LEGO tends to get hoarded, resold or donated, not thrown away. I believe I have more than 99% of all the LEGO I or my parents ever bought, going back to 1976 or 7.
- samstave 3y ago
  I have lost all mine sadly. And I had so much given to me. But my life took me in a path that separated me from all my Lego. :-(
- londons_explore 3y ago
  > LEGO tends to get hoarded, resold or donated, not thrown away. I doubt this. Outside Lego enthusiasts, most people see it as a children's toy which is probably disgustingly covered in saliva and in no fit state for anyone else to touch. It's one of the first things to go into the trash when more space is needed in the attic.
  - dr_kiszonka 3y ago
    You can put them into a pillowcase and wash in a washing machine. Given how expensive Legos are many people will gladly pick them up from your place, especially if you live in a city. You can look up Buy Nothing and similar groups in your area on FB.
    - londons_explore 3y ago
      Sure, but most people don't know that. So they chuck them out with the rest of the dog-eared teddy bears.
      - swores 3y ago
        I'm not convinced you're correct in your belief that most people are like you in this respect. But I don't have evidence to disprove you either.

brazzy 3y ago

> large Technic sets often have expensive electronic and pneumatic parts that must be considered. On the other hand, Technic sets contain large numbers of pins, which are basically worthless.

oaiey 3y ago
Exactly. And motors are massively overpriced compared to what is in them.

dclowd9901 3y ago

I had no idea this was even a thing. I always just think “would this set make me $x happy to have?” Of course, the answer is never “no” so I think I probably am not very bargain conscious when it comes to LEGO. And I may have a problem.

sharkweek 3y ago
Any advice for someone developing a problem? But seriously, the cost is so worth it for me. As someone who has attention span challenges from time to time, LEGO puts me into a flow state like almost nothing else. I love a good 2-3 night session putting together a big set.
- TheAceOfHearts 3y ago
  If you want to experience true frustration, try buying one of those 3d metal kits which require a set of pliers to assemble. The instructions are incredibly sparse and an incredible amount of precision is required. If you want a bit of an increased challenge, Gundam models tend to be a bit more difficult than Lego while still feeling stimulating and fun.
  - nuancebydefault 3y ago
    I've built a few metal earth models. It is not very easy, but if you have a good plier set, perfectly doable! It puts you in a flow, just like with Lego, and the result looks nicer than Lego, for less money.
- aacid 3y ago
  It doesn't work for me, I do have ADD and lego puts me into flow, but after that I kust feel bad that I spent time and money on something without actual value. Thinking I could have spend that time on chores, home improvement or side projects...
  - yard2010 3y ago
    But what do you mean without value you said it makes you feel good that's the best value ever. Money is not like time - if you don't spend money you get to keep it. If you don't spend time, you waste it. You can't do chores all the time so instead of just doing nothing why not doing something that makes you feel good just for the sake of it

garyiskidding 3y ago

This is really cool. Thank you.

sandreas 3y ago

LEGO is indeed pretty expensive these times. Not every set is that bad, but the most cars are not only expensive, but not even the best sets on the market... There is a lot of comparisons, but the most convincing one maybe the LEGO Ferarri (42125) vs. CADA Italian Super Car (C61042W) video[1] of "Held der Steine" (german youtube channel). The LEGO is "parts only" - the CADA is remote controlled with led lights near double the parts of the lego one for the same price. Many of the newer manufacturers are 100% compatible and provide near double the part count for a similar set. Even if some of them are shameless rip-offs and illegal to have in some countries, most of them are smaller companies with great part quality, prints (no stickers) and innovative designs (see CaDA® C61503W AMG One). There is also the world of Trains or Tractors, where LEGO tends to fail every time. There are - CaDa - BlueBrixx - Cobi - fischertechnik - Unico - Mould King - burgkidz - Wange - Sluban - Q-Bricks Just to provide you some alternatives :-) 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXphWMPWsZw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXphWMPWsZw

beAbU 3y ago
I don't think you can compare LEGO with not-LEGO... Firstly it feels a little sacrilegious, but religion aside quality is often uncomparable and there was this common meme from my childhood that your parents did not love you if you got knockoff LEGOs. Part of the reason why we buy LEGO is because it's LEGO. Buying some other brand (regardless of quality) does not hit the same way.
- WilTimSon 3y ago
  But that's a learned behaviour, and one learned specifically thanks to decades of marketing. Sure, LEGO is quality, but it's not some unbeatable gold standard. At some point it simply becomes one of those things where people ask for Coke instead of Pepsi, even if they can't tell them apart - brand loyalty trumping the desire to simply get the product.
  - sandreas 3y ago
    That's what I think. And even if the quality of the parts was less good, it's just not worth the LEGO price in many cases. The video I linked shows the difference.

j45 3y ago

Technics is badass though. Still remember my set.