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The real trick that made Google possible, and the following web 2.0 era startups, was that linux and commodity hardware was all that was needed at the time so e

The real trick that made Google possible, and the following web 2.0 era startups, was that linux and commodity hardware was all that was needed at the time so engineers could strike out on their own. Comparing it to the current ML era where you need many millions of dollars of data and many millions of dollars of hardware to compete, the guys that wrote the transformers paper are stuck in bigcorp and aren't going to be the next Larry and Sergey. OpenAI might be one of the few new big companies but it's run by a VC/CEO, not the engineers that figured the stuff out, and he had to sell half the company to Microsoft anyway.

nsguy 3y ago
These things always happen at intersections. There are lots of smart people with ideas. The magic happens at the intersection of ideas, time (what technology is available) and luck. Apple Newton was too early. Apple iPhone was just right. Doom 3D was just at the right time when commodity hardware could do what the amazing software needed it to do.
- downWidOutaFite 3y ago
  The point I was trying to make is what are the situation where an independent small startup can make it big. Your examples are instructive, engineers were able to make id Software big because you didn't need a lot of hardware to invent 3D shooters, but Jobs gets the credit for the iPhone because the engineers needed hundreds of millions of dollars in capital to pull it off. pg is giving advice based on him getting rich from that period of time where the small startup could make it big. But those conditions are probably rare going forward.
  - fragmede 3y ago
    maybe. right now, if a startup has a new ML training technique or whatever, for a specific niche, cloud and VC capital will let them make a model that does way better for their niche than repackaging well funded models from OpenAI.
  - pixl97 3y ago
    >is what are the situation where an independent small startup can make it big. Yes, there are also all kinds of completely unrelated to your idea things that can succeed or kill your business. Happen to launch your idea the day before a global economic collapse, well, better be exceptionally lucky. Happen to launch when interest rates drop though the floor and banks are handing out money to anyone. You're going to have a harder time failing.
ldjkfkdsjnv 3y ago
Wild to think that potentially the most innovative company of the last five years, and next five, was run/founded by a VC. It goes against all of the VC hate
- DaSHacka 3y ago
  How does a VC being a VC disprove anything? Just means he's good at raising money, and hiring good engineers.

nsguy 3y ago

These things always happen at intersections. There are lots of smart people with ideas. The magic happens at the intersection of ideas, time (what technology is available) and luck. Apple Newton was too early. Apple iPhone was just right. Doom 3D was just at the right time when commodity hardware could do what the amazing software needed it to do.

downWidOutaFite 3y ago
The point I was trying to make is what are the situation where an independent small startup can make it big. Your examples are instructive, engineers were able to make id Software big because you didn't need a lot of hardware to invent 3D shooters, but Jobs gets the credit for the iPhone because the engineers needed hundreds of millions of dollars in capital to pull it off. pg is giving advice based on him getting rich from that period of time where the small startup could make it big. But those conditions are probably rare going forward.
- fragmede 3y ago
  maybe. right now, if a startup has a new ML training technique or whatever, for a specific niche, cloud and VC capital will let them make a model that does way better for their niche than repackaging well funded models from OpenAI.
- pixl97 3y ago
  >is what are the situation where an independent small startup can make it big. Yes, there are also all kinds of completely unrelated to your idea things that can succeed or kill your business. Happen to launch your idea the day before a global economic collapse, well, better be exceptionally lucky. Happen to launch when interest rates drop though the floor and banks are handing out money to anyone. You're going to have a harder time failing.

ldjkfkdsjnv 3y ago

Wild to think that potentially the most innovative company of the last five years, and next five, was run/founded by a VC. It goes against all of the VC hate

DaSHacka 3y ago
How does a VC being a VC disprove anything? Just means he's good at raising money, and hiring good engineers.