4 ms·

>The question is: do they really have to? Balancing budgets is a point of economic orthodoxy in some circles, but Japan in many ways is the proof that keynesism

>The question is: do they really have to? Balancing budgets is a point of economic orthodoxy in some circles, but Japan in many ways is the proof that keynesism can be sustained for generations. Japan is on the verge of societal collapse. Their PM literally said that Japan is on the verge of not being a functioning society. We are looking to Japan as the example of failure. You seem to be looking at them as some sort of success? This is very confusing to me. >Why? If it works, it works. It worked in Europe and the US too, before Reagan and Thatcher brainwashed us. It didn't work... Europe has a GDP to debt ceiling which is being enforced. This has resulted in Spain -50% their social nets over the last little while for example. This is also why Germany and others have a balanced budget amendment. Effectively forcing all future german politicians to balance the budget. This decision will give EU the world order in due course. Basically just waiting on the USA to sort of bankrupt at this point, not that bankruptcy is a thing for countries. Though I do expect India will follow up in China's demise. >That is indeed an issue, but again - it's largely an issue for countries that have already spent their social-security money. Is Japan one of them? I honestly don't know. Because of this debt. Japan has basically lost decades. They are still stuck in the 90s effectively. They pay so much money on servicing their debt, their social nets practically dont exist and are shrinking nonstop.

pjc50 3y ago
> Their PM literally said that Japan is on the verge of not being a functioning society. This is hyperbole. People haven't even started littering, let alone any kind of wider social breakdown. I found https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/budget/budget/fy2023/02.pdf https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/budget/budget/fy2023/02... , which is fascinating; page 22 has a graph which shows that the interest payment has been roughly flat for years, due to declining rate. The social security issue is indeed a problem and there's probably going to be controversial pension reform, but it's a long way from blowing up. Also the major creditor is .. Bank of Japan.
- incomingpain 3y ago
  >This is hyperbole. People haven't even started littering, let alone any kind of wider social breakdown. The PM is correct and it's certainly not hyperbole. Littering as if that's some sort of proper measurement? Japan has a 99% conviction rate and penal labour. You're not going to litter. Japan is going to go from functioning clean place to detroit in a short period of time. That's the point the PM is making. >which is fascinating; page 22 has a graph which shows that the interest payment has been roughly flat for years, due to declining rate. The social security issue is indeed a problem and there's probably going to be controversial pension reform, but it's a long way from blowing up. Also the major creditor is .. Bank of Japan. Due to negative rates which just changed. I wonder as well, you bring up pensions. Those pensioners are getting poorer by the day. There's literally no chance of long term retirement, silver crime and retirements ending soon leading into suicide is going to be Japan's future. You can write it down now, but I bet Mt Fuji forests are going to have police stationed there rather regularly to prevent suicide. I have no skin in the game for Japan. I dont live there and if I did, I'd fast track my trip out of there. The generational warfare has sunk Japan and it's a ticking timebomb. I dont much care who the creditor is and better yet how exactly does that work? An older generation rings up the debt bill and thinks the far fewer younger workers are going to just give up their lives and live indentured to the retirees? That's not how it'll ever go.
  - toyg 3y ago
    > dont much care who the creditor is Lol, your credibility just sunk to zero, sorry. Debts only matter insofar as the creditor is likely to call it in. If I have a debt with someone who will never want the money back, does the debt matter at all? This is basic stuff.
    - incomingpain 3y ago
      >Lol, your credibility just sunk to zero, sorry. Debts only matter insofar as the creditor is likely to call it in. If I have a debt with someone who will never want the money back, does the debt matter at all? Japanese pensioners never want the money back? They plan to work forever? My credibility eh?
toyg 3y ago
You are muddling issues and mixing them with apocalyptic sentences that really don't persuade anyone. For starters, European economies differ wildly between each other, and their public debt as has not been held by their own citizens for a very long time. Comparing "Europe" with Japan is very imprecise. > Germany and others have a balanced budget amendment. That future Germans will likely be free to repel or ignore. Who is going to punish them, the dead? Constitutional amendments pledging this or that budgetary action are largely performative. Even EU-level rules (which have no basis in actual economic science, the writers themselves admitted to making up things like 3% debt/gdp ceiling etc) are mostly a pledge, which the big players ignore in practice whenever they see fit. > They pay so much money on servicing their debt, their social nets practically dont exist and are shrinking nonstop. Because society nets are expanding elsewhere...? They're contracting everywhere, you mentioned Spain yourself but it's the same everywhere. Precisely because of misplaced budgetary obsessions. Japan is not perfect, but their model has a lot going for it.
- incomingpain 3y ago
  >You are muddling issues and mixing them with apocalyptic sentences that really don't persuade anyone. For starters, European economies differ wildly between each other, and their public debt as has not been held by their own citizens for a very long time. Comparing "Europe" with Japan is very imprecise. Im not trying to persuade anyone, Im a nobody with no reach, my words dont matter. I'm not narcissistic to think otherwise. I am totally fine with people making bad decisions. Welcome to history 101. As for 'apocalyptic' sentences. That wasn't my words, that was the prime minister of japan's words and I agree with his conclusions. It's rather set in stone at this point, they are going to need to reduce tax burden in at least half before they'll get their fertility rates up. >That future Germans will likely be free to repel or ignore. Who is going to punish them, the dead? Constitutional amendments pledging this or that budgetary action are largely performative. Even EU-level rules (which have no basis in actual economic science, the writers themselves admitted to making up things like 3% debt/gdp ceiling etc) are mostly a pledge, which the big players ignore in practice whenever they see fit. They could repeal sure but I very much doubt that happens. They are already aware of the wealth benefits of maintaining a balanced budget. Switzerland especially has learnt this one. >Because society nets are expanding elsewhere...? They're contracting everywhere, you mentioned Spain yourself but it's the same everywhere. Precisely because of misplaced budgetary obsessions. In my other comments I explained how we're at the end of a major political movement. Yes I realize HN seems to have a hivemind thinking that this political movement is on the verge a grand success. I actually fail to see where they are expanding? UK 4.1 -> 2.4 France 8.4 -> 5.65 Italy 10.61 -> 3.12 Spain 5.36 -> 2.96 Australia 9.65 -> 3.84 Netherlands 7.75 -> 2.95 Canada 6.92 -> 2.58 Do I dare pull out the calculator to figure out the average decrease over the last 3 decades? Japan and SK are worse off obviously. when this political movement failed in 1989, it really held on as hard as it could, rebranding over and over. I'm not even sure what they call themselves this week. >Japan is not perfect, but their model has a lot going for it. Japan does not have much going for it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decades https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decades This wiki page needs updating, they are still having a lost decade. Shinzo Abe got assassinated over this. Toyota, Sony, Panasonic, Sharp, and Toshiba. But I look at those names and I feel like we're talking about 20 years ago. Those brands are barely holding on today. Their population decline has already started and has already caused problems. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/23/japans-ageing-population-poses-urgent-risk-to-society-says-pm https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/23/japans-ageing-... In 2012, retirement age was 60, and now its 64. In about 2030 or so it will reach 70. This is set in stone. I dont care if Fushida fixes fertility, you cant spawn 20 year olds. So in 2040 or so Japan will no longer have the retirement pyramid scheme. Essentially, if you're not retired already, you're probably working for your entire life. Yikes.

pjc50 3y ago

> Their PM literally said that Japan is on the verge of not being a functioning society. This is hyperbole. People haven't even started littering, let alone any kind of wider social breakdown. I found https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/budget/budget/fy2023/02.pdf https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/budget/budget/fy2023/02... , which is fascinating; page 22 has a graph which shows that the interest payment has been roughly flat for years, due to declining rate. The social security issue is indeed a problem and there's probably going to be controversial pension reform, but it's a long way from blowing up. Also the major creditor is .. Bank of Japan.

incomingpain 3y ago
>This is hyperbole. People haven't even started littering, let alone any kind of wider social breakdown. The PM is correct and it's certainly not hyperbole. Littering as if that's some sort of proper measurement? Japan has a 99% conviction rate and penal labour. You're not going to litter. Japan is going to go from functioning clean place to detroit in a short period of time. That's the point the PM is making. >which is fascinating; page 22 has a graph which shows that the interest payment has been roughly flat for years, due to declining rate. The social security issue is indeed a problem and there's probably going to be controversial pension reform, but it's a long way from blowing up. Also the major creditor is .. Bank of Japan. Due to negative rates which just changed. I wonder as well, you bring up pensions. Those pensioners are getting poorer by the day. There's literally no chance of long term retirement, silver crime and retirements ending soon leading into suicide is going to be Japan's future. You can write it down now, but I bet Mt Fuji forests are going to have police stationed there rather regularly to prevent suicide. I have no skin in the game for Japan. I dont live there and if I did, I'd fast track my trip out of there. The generational warfare has sunk Japan and it's a ticking timebomb. I dont much care who the creditor is and better yet how exactly does that work? An older generation rings up the debt bill and thinks the far fewer younger workers are going to just give up their lives and live indentured to the retirees? That's not how it'll ever go.
- toyg 3y ago
  > dont much care who the creditor is Lol, your credibility just sunk to zero, sorry. Debts only matter insofar as the creditor is likely to call it in. If I have a debt with someone who will never want the money back, does the debt matter at all? This is basic stuff.
  - incomingpain 3y ago
    >Lol, your credibility just sunk to zero, sorry. Debts only matter insofar as the creditor is likely to call it in. If I have a debt with someone who will never want the money back, does the debt matter at all? Japanese pensioners never want the money back? They plan to work forever? My credibility eh?

toyg 3y ago

You are muddling issues and mixing them with apocalyptic sentences that really don't persuade anyone. For starters, European economies differ wildly between each other, and their public debt as has not been held by their own citizens for a very long time. Comparing "Europe" with Japan is very imprecise. > Germany and others have a balanced budget amendment. That future Germans will likely be free to repel or ignore. Who is going to punish them, the dead? Constitutional amendments pledging this or that budgetary action are largely performative. Even EU-level rules (which have no basis in actual economic science, the writers themselves admitted to making up things like 3% debt/gdp ceiling etc) are mostly a pledge, which the big players ignore in practice whenever they see fit. > They pay so much money on servicing their debt, their social nets practically dont exist and are shrinking nonstop. Because society nets are expanding elsewhere...? They're contracting everywhere, you mentioned Spain yourself but it's the same everywhere. Precisely because of misplaced budgetary obsessions. Japan is not perfect, but their model has a lot going for it.

incomingpain 3y ago
>You are muddling issues and mixing them with apocalyptic sentences that really don't persuade anyone. For starters, European economies differ wildly between each other, and their public debt as has not been held by their own citizens for a very long time. Comparing "Europe" with Japan is very imprecise. Im not trying to persuade anyone, Im a nobody with no reach, my words dont matter. I'm not narcissistic to think otherwise. I am totally fine with people making bad decisions. Welcome to history 101. As for 'apocalyptic' sentences. That wasn't my words, that was the prime minister of japan's words and I agree with his conclusions. It's rather set in stone at this point, they are going to need to reduce tax burden in at least half before they'll get their fertility rates up. >That future Germans will likely be free to repel or ignore. Who is going to punish them, the dead? Constitutional amendments pledging this or that budgetary action are largely performative. Even EU-level rules (which have no basis in actual economic science, the writers themselves admitted to making up things like 3% debt/gdp ceiling etc) are mostly a pledge, which the big players ignore in practice whenever they see fit. They could repeal sure but I very much doubt that happens. They are already aware of the wealth benefits of maintaining a balanced budget. Switzerland especially has learnt this one. >Because society nets are expanding elsewhere...? They're contracting everywhere, you mentioned Spain yourself but it's the same everywhere. Precisely because of misplaced budgetary obsessions. In my other comments I explained how we're at the end of a major political movement. Yes I realize HN seems to have a hivemind thinking that this political movement is on the verge a grand success. I actually fail to see where they are expanding? UK 4.1 -> 2.4 France 8.4 -> 5.65 Italy 10.61 -> 3.12 Spain 5.36 -> 2.96 Australia 9.65 -> 3.84 Netherlands 7.75 -> 2.95 Canada 6.92 -> 2.58 Do I dare pull out the calculator to figure out the average decrease over the last 3 decades? Japan and SK are worse off obviously. when this political movement failed in 1989, it really held on as hard as it could, rebranding over and over. I'm not even sure what they call themselves this week. >Japan is not perfect, but their model has a lot going for it. Japan does not have much going for it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decades https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decades This wiki page needs updating, they are still having a lost decade. Shinzo Abe got assassinated over this. Toyota, Sony, Panasonic, Sharp, and Toshiba. But I look at those names and I feel like we're talking about 20 years ago. Those brands are barely holding on today. Their population decline has already started and has already caused problems. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/23/japans-ageing-population-poses-urgent-risk-to-society-says-pm https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/23/japans-ageing-... In 2012, retirement age was 60, and now its 64. In about 2030 or so it will reach 70. This is set in stone. I dont care if Fushida fixes fertility, you cant spawn 20 year olds. So in 2040 or so Japan will no longer have the retirement pyramid scheme. Essentially, if you're not retired already, you're probably working for your entire life. Yikes.