6 ms·

I was sad to search for the word "luck" and come up empty. You can do everything right and still fail. You can do everything wrong and win. Sometimes you're jus

I was sad to search for the word "luck" and come up empty. You can do everything right and still fail. You can do everything wrong and win. Sometimes you're just in the right place at the right time, and that external factor is completely out of your control and can be the difference you need.

duggan 3y ago
I don't disagree that luck is a factor, but what can you do with that information other than console yourself when it doesn't work out?
- dingnuts 3y ago
  use the knowledge that your plans may not succeed despite your best efforts to set expectations so that you are not emotionally devastated if this happens, and so that you are prepared in other ways as well. take the shot, but have a back-up plan, basically.
- teucris 3y ago
  Learn how to manage bets. Some people have the resources to fail many times and keep going. Others do not. Knowing that a huge portion of starting a business is luck, you can better weigh your options and hopefully select different opportunities depending on your situation. And, in the unfortunately common case, recognize when you cannot take any bets and instead focus on getting yourself to a place where you can, rather than betting everything and losing everything.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
    Managing "bets" with capital that you can afford to lose is utterly different to managing "bets" with your time and labor.
- j7ake 3y ago
  Not over leverage yourself such that if you fail you would be unable to recover.
- kelnos 3y ago
  You can decide not to do it in the first place. A 15-year-old hearing this talk from Graham as-is might take from it, "wow, if I learn programming, work on things that interest me, do well in school, and go to a good university, I'm guaranteed to build a Google-scale successful startup!" Telling that kid that there's also a component of luck involved, and that the vast majority of startups fail, would temper that enthusiasm in a much more honest way. If that means fewer kids decide to start companies, that's obviously a negative in Graham's book, but may not be a negative for those kids themselves.
  - nezaj 3y ago
    I think it's a jump to assume the kid will believe there is a _guarantee_ If the kid is motivated from this essay to learn programming, work on things that interest them, do well in school, and go to a good university -- I think they're well setup for success in their life.
    - psnehanshu 3y ago
      But not if you put "starting the next Google" as the criteria for success.
- bananapub 3y ago
  you can do a lot! - discount the useless advice you get from people who got lucky and are unaware of this fact - target trying to be in the right place at the right time and have a plan B if you don't get lucky, rather than waking up at 0400 every day to eat raw eggs or whatever - respect yourself and your employees more - be more generous with what luck brings you etc etc etc a much better question is why do YC and co not talk about luck and connections more? why do they pretend it's all some imaginary meritocracy rather than hugely dependent on going to the right school / being born into the right social class, and then hugely advantaged by having YC's name recognition and tame lendors attached?
- duggan 3y ago
  Just to follow up, we’re discussing advice to young teenagers here. I think it’s reasonable to inspire more than hedge. They’ll presumably already hear lots about what the least risky things to do are from many, many sources — that’s the default.
  - int_19h 3y ago
    They are also much more prone to making risky decisions at that age, though, which is why that is the default.
brigadier132 3y ago
It's luck in the same way that poker is luck.
- palata 3y ago
  Do you not know poker at all?
  - brigadier132 3y ago
    Yes, ive played professionally. To be charitable I’ll explain it to you. In poker you play a massive number of hands and if you are good you play a preplanned strategy and sometimes when following that strategy you lose but over the long run, assuming you are playing a winning strategy, you make money. The luck is seen in the short term fluctuations but over the long run when executing your strategy there is no luck. This requires proper bankroll management among other things. Also starting a business is easier than poker, poker is zero sum (more often negative sum due to rake). Business is positive sum. What this means is people will gladly hand you money if your product generates more value for them than holding that money does. In poker, every single hand is like a fist fight because there is always a loser in every hand.
    - rrdharan 3y ago
      In this analogy, the VCs are playing poker. The hands (or the cards dealt to the VC player in that hand) are individual startups. Yes you can win if you are a VC. Less clear what to do if you’re just a card.
      - brigadier132 3y ago
        Founders can take multiple shots too. Everyone is playing poker to an extent. VCs are playing cash games and founders are playing tournaments.
  - takinola 3y ago
    Poker is actually a good analogy. It is luck in the short term but skill over the long term. You can't confidently predict that you will win any specific upcoming hand but, given a particular set of opponents, you can reasonably predict whether you will be up or down over a number of hands. I may beat Chris Moneymaker on a hand or two but he's going to take all my money over the long haul. The insight here is to only play in games that you have the advantage (or are at least evenly matched) and be very, very careful not to put yourself in a position to go bust on any one hand.
dade_ 3y ago
“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” ― Seneca
- fuzzfactor 3y ago
  Even if you build a system that has no reliance whatsoever on the existence of good fortune, it can still be felled by a run of bad fortune.

duggan 3y ago

I don't disagree that luck is a factor, but what can you do with that information other than console yourself when it doesn't work out?

dingnuts 3y ago
use the knowledge that your plans may not succeed despite your best efforts to set expectations so that you are not emotionally devastated if this happens, and so that you are prepared in other ways as well. take the shot, but have a back-up plan, basically.
teucris 3y ago
Learn how to manage bets. Some people have the resources to fail many times and keep going. Others do not. Knowing that a huge portion of starting a business is luck, you can better weigh your options and hopefully select different opportunities depending on your situation. And, in the unfortunately common case, recognize when you cannot take any bets and instead focus on getting yourself to a place where you can, rather than betting everything and losing everything.
- PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
  Managing "bets" with capital that you can afford to lose is utterly different to managing "bets" with your time and labor.
j7ake 3y ago
Not over leverage yourself such that if you fail you would be unable to recover.
kelnos 3y ago
You can decide not to do it in the first place. A 15-year-old hearing this talk from Graham as-is might take from it, "wow, if I learn programming, work on things that interest me, do well in school, and go to a good university, I'm guaranteed to build a Google-scale successful startup!" Telling that kid that there's also a component of luck involved, and that the vast majority of startups fail, would temper that enthusiasm in a much more honest way. If that means fewer kids decide to start companies, that's obviously a negative in Graham's book, but may not be a negative for those kids themselves.
- nezaj 3y ago
  I think it's a jump to assume the kid will believe there is a _guarantee_ If the kid is motivated from this essay to learn programming, work on things that interest them, do well in school, and go to a good university -- I think they're well setup for success in their life.
  - psnehanshu 3y ago
    But not if you put "starting the next Google" as the criteria for success.
bananapub 3y ago
you can do a lot! - discount the useless advice you get from people who got lucky and are unaware of this fact - target trying to be in the right place at the right time and have a plan B if you don't get lucky, rather than waking up at 0400 every day to eat raw eggs or whatever - respect yourself and your employees more - be more generous with what luck brings you etc etc etc a much better question is why do YC and co not talk about luck and connections more? why do they pretend it's all some imaginary meritocracy rather than hugely dependent on going to the right school / being born into the right social class, and then hugely advantaged by having YC's name recognition and tame lendors attached?
duggan 3y ago
Just to follow up, we’re discussing advice to young teenagers here. I think it’s reasonable to inspire more than hedge. They’ll presumably already hear lots about what the least risky things to do are from many, many sources — that’s the default.
- int_19h 3y ago
  They are also much more prone to making risky decisions at that age, though, which is why that is the default.

brigadier132 3y ago

It's luck in the same way that poker is luck.

palata 3y ago
Do you not know poker at all?
- brigadier132 3y ago
  Yes, ive played professionally. To be charitable I’ll explain it to you. In poker you play a massive number of hands and if you are good you play a preplanned strategy and sometimes when following that strategy you lose but over the long run, assuming you are playing a winning strategy, you make money. The luck is seen in the short term fluctuations but over the long run when executing your strategy there is no luck. This requires proper bankroll management among other things. Also starting a business is easier than poker, poker is zero sum (more often negative sum due to rake). Business is positive sum. What this means is people will gladly hand you money if your product generates more value for them than holding that money does. In poker, every single hand is like a fist fight because there is always a loser in every hand.
  - rrdharan 3y ago
    In this analogy, the VCs are playing poker. The hands (or the cards dealt to the VC player in that hand) are individual startups. Yes you can win if you are a VC. Less clear what to do if you’re just a card.
    - brigadier132 3y ago
      Founders can take multiple shots too. Everyone is playing poker to an extent. VCs are playing cash games and founders are playing tournaments.
- takinola 3y ago
  Poker is actually a good analogy. It is luck in the short term but skill over the long term. You can't confidently predict that you will win any specific upcoming hand but, given a particular set of opponents, you can reasonably predict whether you will be up or down over a number of hands. I may beat Chris Moneymaker on a hand or two but he's going to take all my money over the long haul. The insight here is to only play in games that you have the advantage (or are at least evenly matched) and be very, very careful not to put yourself in a position to go bust on any one hand.

dade_ 3y ago

“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” ― Seneca

fuzzfactor 3y ago
Even if you build a system that has no reliance whatsoever on the existence of good fortune, it can still be felled by a run of bad fortune.