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1.4 billion euros over budget, 12 years in, and they still can't make it work. I am not sure if I am super proud of this. Science experiments should have some

1.4 billion euros over budget, 12 years in, and they still can't make it work. I am not sure if I am super proud of this. Science experiments should have some accountability as well.

snakeyjake 3y ago
I cut cost overruns for things like this some slack because I know, irrefutably, that anyone who thinks they can estimate a budget for a one-of-one, never-been-done-before, object like Euclid is a liar. I know all about the techniques. I've been in the meetings. I've seen the spreadsheets. Your parametric cost model is adorable. But at the end of the day, you're just lying with math. And if you have to lie a little bit to get a space telescope built... no sweat.
- echoangle 3y ago
  Is the stated predicted cost really their honest prediction? I thought they always lowball on purpose to make approval easier. Otherwise, I don’t understand why they not just double every prediction by default, that would probably increase accuracy.
n4r9 3y ago
1.4 billion appears to be the total cost: https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2023/05/Euclid_an_ESA-led_global_collaboration https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2023/05/Euclid_an_... Budget back in 2012 was 600 million: https://cerncourier.com/a/euclid-to-link-the-largest-and-smallest-scales/ https://cerncourier.com/a/euclid-to-link-the-largest-and-sma... I don't know how badly inflation hits these projects, but that's around 820 million in today's money, which means roughly 580 million over budget. And I've no doubt that 600 million was only floated around in the first place to satisfy a bureaucratic manager who imagines that putting a number next to everything makes things efficient.
- throwway120385 3y ago
  Some of this stuff is a gas, and as we know, gases at low temperature or high pressure tend to condense into a liquid. While gases can be compressed into a small space, liquids tend to quite violently exceed the confines of their container.
petschge 3y ago
That's what? Fourteen F-35s? Shared by all of Europe. Or in other words 30 cents per European for each of 6 years. Science is much cheaper than you think. And much cheaper than not doing it.

1.4 billion euros over budget, 12 years in, and they still can't make it work. I am not sure if I am super proud of this. Science experiments should have some accountability as well.

snakeyjake 3y ago

I cut cost overruns for things like this some slack because I know, irrefutably, that anyone who thinks they can estimate a budget for a one-of-one, never-been-done-before, object like Euclid is a liar. I know all about the techniques. I've been in the meetings. I've seen the spreadsheets. Your parametric cost model is adorable. But at the end of the day, you're just lying with math. And if you have to lie a little bit to get a space telescope built... no sweat.

echoangle 3y ago
Is the stated predicted cost really their honest prediction? I thought they always lowball on purpose to make approval easier. Otherwise, I don’t understand why they not just double every prediction by default, that would probably increase accuracy.

n4r9 3y ago

1.4 billion appears to be the total cost: https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2023/05/Euclid_an_ESA-led_global_collaboration https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2023/05/Euclid_an_... Budget back in 2012 was 600 million: https://cerncourier.com/a/euclid-to-link-the-largest-and-smallest-scales/ https://cerncourier.com/a/euclid-to-link-the-largest-and-sma... I don't know how badly inflation hits these projects, but that's around 820 million in today's money, which means roughly 580 million over budget. And I've no doubt that 600 million was only floated around in the first place to satisfy a bureaucratic manager who imagines that putting a number next to everything makes things efficient.

throwway120385 3y ago
Some of this stuff is a gas, and as we know, gases at low temperature or high pressure tend to condense into a liquid. While gases can be compressed into a small space, liquids tend to quite violently exceed the confines of their container.

petschge 3y ago

That's what? Fourteen F-35s? Shared by all of Europe. Or in other words 30 cents per European for each of 6 years. Science is much cheaper than you think. And much cheaper than not doing it.