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Unlike computers, the economy isn't deterministic (among other differences.) In order to understand the Japanese economy today, one really needs to read books
by AJ007 3y ago
Unlike computers, the economy isn't deterministic (among other differences.)
In order to understand the Japanese economy today, one really needs to read books about Japan's bubble in the 1980s. The interest rates Japan experiences today are the result of this. In a way, that makes certain aspects their economy very different from that of any other major Western or Asian country.
I would recommend reading "The Bubble Economy" -- which was published in 1992 and thus gives a more closer point of view. The author believed there was an imminent and abrupt price correction, it turn out to be worse and drawn out over decades.
Secondly, "Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation", published in 2000. The part about Japan's bubble was more concise than the "The Bubble Economy" and has some bits the first missed.
One of the best things about both of these books is they were written before the subsequent dot com bubble and housing bubble in the US.
Japan provides a good lesson on just how drawn out recovering from gross misallocations of capital during bubbles can be, even in very wealthy and developed countries. In Japan's case, it has had a multi-generational impact which continues today.
- michaelt 3y ago> In order to understand the Japanese economy today, one really needs to read books about Japan's bubble in the 1980s. The interest rates Japan experiences today are the result of this. Have they really not changed their thinking in all that time? We in the west have had at 3-4 major financial crashes in the intervening period - and innumerable changes in government policy.
- pjc50 3y agoThe particular conditions which lead to Japanese "stagflation" are complicated and somewhat beyond me (and, seemingly, Japanese policymakers), but the basic operation of trying to cut interest rates to raise inflation and raise interest rates to cut inflation is something that should work across all normal-looking market economies. It did take a long time to take effect in Japan, probably because the model would require negative rates and works less well in that region.