4 ms·

> 265% debt to gdp is absolute bananas. They still havent balanced their budget. The question is: do they really have to? Balancing budgets is a point of econ

by toyg 3y ago

> 265% debt to gdp is absolute bananas. They still havent balanced their budget. The question is: do they really have to? Balancing budgets is a point of economic orthodoxy in some circles, but Japan in many ways is the proof that keynesism can be sustained for generations. In the end, most of that debt is held by the Japanese themselves; as long as the country continues to effectively believe in its own future, that debt will not be a problem. > 56% income tax rate is crazy Why? If it works, it works. It worked in Europe and the US too, before Reagan and Thatcher brainwashed us. > Then they have to deal with major population decline and aging population That is indeed an issue, but again - it's largely an issue for countries that have already spent their social-security money. Is Japan one of them? I honestly don't know.

ecshafer 3y ago
This is obviously a tough call, but I think without fixing the population growth issue, Japan would have to fix this eventually. Otherwise the economy will start shrinking blowing the issue up.
jibe 3y ago
Just knowing the tax rate tells you almost nothing about tax burden. The US had high tax rates, but that’s not what people paid. There was an extensive system of deductions that were also eliminated when rates came down. Japan is right at OECD average, just a couple spots above in tax burden for an average worker, and tax to GDP ratio. So people don’t pay the 56% published rate.
incomingpain 3y ago
>The question is: do they really have to? Balancing budgets is a point of economic orthodoxy in some circles, but Japan in many ways is the proof that keynesism can be sustained for generations. Japan is on the verge of societal collapse. Their PM literally said that Japan is on the verge of not being a functioning society. We are looking to Japan as the example of failure. You seem to be looking at them as some sort of success? This is very confusing to me. >Why? If it works, it works. It worked in Europe and the US too, before Reagan and Thatcher brainwashed us. It didn't work... Europe has a GDP to debt ceiling which is being enforced. This has resulted in Spain -50% their social nets over the last little while for example. This is also why Germany and others have a balanced budget amendment. Effectively forcing all future german politicians to balance the budget. This decision will give EU the world order in due course. Basically just waiting on the USA to sort of bankrupt at this point, not that bankruptcy is a thing for countries. Though I do expect India will follow up in China's demise. >That is indeed an issue, but again - it's largely an issue for countries that have already spent their social-security money. Is Japan one of them? I honestly don't know. Because of this debt. Japan has basically lost decades. They are still stuck in the 90s effectively. They pay so much money on servicing their debt, their social nets practically dont exist and are shrinking nonstop.
- pjc50 3y ago
  > Their PM literally said that Japan is on the verge of not being a functioning society. This is hyperbole. People haven't even started littering, let alone any kind of wider social breakdown. I found https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/budget/budget/fy2023/02.pdf https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/budget/budget/fy2023/02... , which is fascinating; page 22 has a graph which shows that the interest payment has been roughly flat for years, due to declining rate. The social security issue is indeed a problem and there's probably going to be controversial pension reform, but it's a long way from blowing up. Also the major creditor is .. Bank of Japan.
  - incomingpain 3y ago
    >This is hyperbole. People haven't even started littering, let alone any kind of wider social breakdown. The PM is correct and it's certainly not hyperbole. Littering as if that's some sort of proper measurement? Japan has a 99% conviction rate and penal labour. You're not going to litter. Japan is going to go from functioning clean place to detroit in a short period of time. That's the point the PM is making. >which is fascinating; page 22 has a graph which shows that the interest payment has been roughly flat for years, due to declining rate. The social security issue is indeed a problem and there's probably going to be controversial pension reform, but it's a long way from blowing up. Also the major creditor is .. Bank of Japan. Due to negative rates which just changed. I wonder as well, you bring up pensions. Those pensioners are getting poorer by the day. There's literally no chance of long term retirement, silver crime and retirements ending soon leading into suicide is going to be Japan's future. You can write it down now, but I bet Mt Fuji forests are going to have police stationed there rather regularly to prevent suicide. I have no skin in the game for Japan. I dont live there and if I did, I'd fast track my trip out of there. The generational warfare has sunk Japan and it's a ticking timebomb. I dont much care who the creditor is and better yet how exactly does that work? An older generation rings up the debt bill and thinks the far fewer younger workers are going to just give up their lives and live indentured to the retirees? That's not how it'll ever go.
    - toyg 3y ago

by toyg 3y ago

ecshafer 3y ago

This is obviously a tough call, but I think without fixing the population growth issue, Japan would have to fix this eventually. Otherwise the economy will start shrinking blowing the issue up.

jibe 3y ago

Just knowing the tax rate tells you almost nothing about tax burden. The US had high tax rates, but that’s not what people paid. There was an extensive system of deductions that were also eliminated when rates came down. Japan is right at OECD average, just a couple spots above in tax burden for an average worker, and tax to GDP ratio. So people don’t pay the 56% published rate.

incomingpain 3y ago

>The question is: do they really have to? Balancing budgets is a point of economic orthodoxy in some circles, but Japan in many ways is the proof that keynesism can be sustained for generations. Japan is on the verge of societal collapse. Their PM literally said that Japan is on the verge of not being a functioning society. We are looking to Japan as the example of failure. You seem to be looking at them as some sort of success? This is very confusing to me. >Why? If it works, it works. It worked in Europe and the US too, before Reagan and Thatcher brainwashed us. It didn't work... Europe has a GDP to debt ceiling which is being enforced. This has resulted in Spain -50% their social nets over the last little while for example. This is also why Germany and others have a balanced budget amendment. Effectively forcing all future german politicians to balance the budget. This decision will give EU the world order in due course. Basically just waiting on the USA to sort of bankrupt at this point, not that bankruptcy is a thing for countries. Though I do expect India will follow up in China's demise. >That is indeed an issue, but again - it's largely an issue for countries that have already spent their social-security money. Is Japan one of them? I honestly don't know. Because of this debt. Japan has basically lost decades. They are still stuck in the 90s effectively. They pay so much money on servicing their debt, their social nets practically dont exist and are shrinking nonstop.

pjc50 3y ago
> Their PM literally said that Japan is on the verge of not being a functioning society. This is hyperbole. People haven't even started littering, let alone any kind of wider social breakdown. I found https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/budget/budget/fy2023/02.pdf https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/budget/budget/fy2023/02... , which is fascinating; page 22 has a graph which shows that the interest payment has been roughly flat for years, due to declining rate. The social security issue is indeed a problem and there's probably going to be controversial pension reform, but it's a long way from blowing up. Also the major creditor is .. Bank of Japan.
- incomingpain 3y ago
  >This is hyperbole. People haven't even started littering, let alone any kind of wider social breakdown. The PM is correct and it's certainly not hyperbole. Littering as if that's some sort of proper measurement? Japan has a 99% conviction rate and penal labour. You're not going to litter. Japan is going to go from functioning clean place to detroit in a short period of time. That's the point the PM is making. >which is fascinating; page 22 has a graph which shows that the interest payment has been roughly flat for years, due to declining rate. The social security issue is indeed a problem and there's probably going to be controversial pension reform, but it's a long way from blowing up. Also the major creditor is .. Bank of Japan. Due to negative rates which just changed. I wonder as well, you bring up pensions. Those pensioners are getting poorer by the day. There's literally no chance of long term retirement, silver crime and retirements ending soon leading into suicide is going to be Japan's future. You can write it down now, but I bet Mt Fuji forests are going to have police stationed there rather regularly to prevent suicide. I have no skin in the game for Japan. I dont live there and if I did, I'd fast track my trip out of there. The generational warfare has sunk Japan and it's a ticking timebomb. I dont much care who the creditor is and better yet how exactly does that work? An older generation rings up the debt bill and thinks the far fewer younger workers are going to just give up their lives and live indentured to the retirees? That's not how it'll ever go.
  - toyg 3y ago