3 ms·

>Crime is lower on pretty much every metric than it was 20-30 years ago where the last big panic set in the mandatory minimum mania and the carceral state explo

>Crime is lower on pretty much every metric than it was 20-30 years ago where the last big panic set in the mandatory minimum mania and the carceral state exploded. Crime was very high in the 1990s though and it's regulation wasn't from a sudden "panic" but a steady growth from 1950 as it climbed from 5 deaths by homicide per 100,000 in 1950 to 10.4 in 1980 and 9.4 in 1990.[0] If anything there is more "mania" about semiautomatic weapons which have contributed a minuscule amount to these deaths. But I don't think discussing either issue in terms of who has more mania is helpful in any event. [0] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2019/005-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2019/005-508.pdf (Table 5)

janalsncm 3y ago
Homicides in the US today are 7.8/100k, which is still above the 1950 number. I wonder what accounts for the difference. Globally, the US has a higher rate than other countries likely due to guns, but it’s not like guns were illegal in 1950.
- shadowgovt 3y ago
  Having an entire generation where most of the men got drafted into a World War tends to dampen people's enthusiasm for violence.
  - diogenescynic 3y ago
    That is a really profound point. I also bet people are a lot less likely to try something when every male over 18 has basically been trained in combat AND is healthy and fit...
- tivert 3y ago
  > Homicides in the US today are 7.8/100k, which is still above the 1950 number. I wonder what accounts for the difference. Globally, the US has a higher rate than other countries likely due to guns, but it’s not like guns were illegal in 1950. Could it be an urban/rural thing? I'm sure the US population was proportionally far more rural/small town in 1950 than today (on clear display from so many small towns depopulating).
  - adgjlsfhk1 3y ago
    rural areas have higher per capita crime. it's just less commonly reported.
- fngjdflmdflg 3y ago
  The murder rate went up by 22% in 2020[0] but it had went down back to the 5 range in the 2010s. Here's the full chart from that PDF. 1950 | 1960 | 1970 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2017 | 2018 5.1 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 >it’s not like guns were illegal in 1950. true but even a murder rate of 5 is high compared to Europe and this is likely due in large part to guns largely being illegal there (except for Switzerland and seemingly also Finland) [0] https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/shr https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crim...
  - adgjlsfhk1 3y ago
    note that while Switzerland is sometimes used as proof that guns aren't the problem, they do ban private ownership of ammo.
    - bradley13 3y ago
      As a Swiss: that's nonsense. How are you supposed to hunt, or go to the range, without ammunition? See article 16a of our weapons regulation: If you buy it legally, you are allowed to own it.
- diogenescynic 3y ago
  Lack of community, the break up of the nuclear family (i.e. more single parents=less child supervision), loneliness, mental illness and drug induced mental illness, inadequate access to mental and/or health care, and lack of any unified/mass culture that would set standards for behavior. Go checkout other countries that have a few of those things and you really will not find the rates of gun violence we have. Also, most of the gun crime seems to be black on black crimes, but it's taboo to even bring up racial differences without someone accusing you of being some Charles Murray-esque racist (even if you're just citing publicly available data).
- southernplaces7 3y ago
  >I wonder what accounts for the difference. Globally, the US has a higher rate than other countries likely due to guns, but it’s not like guns were illegal in 1950. The FBI'S Uniform Crime Statistics (last published for 2022, 1) break down homicide rates and numbers by demographics. Some reasons for the higher murder rates are right there in easily discernible patterns that have little to do with guns specifically. A majority of homicide is black on black crime among younger men, (though there'es no shortage of white offenders in the same age and gender group, bear in mind the population differential for the country) and it occurs across many states regardless of those states specific gun laws, or those of the municipalities in which these homicides occur. The above is considered by many to be extremely politically incorrect, even racist, but it is what the numbers clearly show based on minutely collected data. We can argue about socioeconomic and other social or political factors causing such homicide numbers in that demographic, but since the focus here is on guns as a possible cause of murder (a rather absurd idea since guns are inert objects unless made to cause harm by a human), that's a different argument. Also, if you look at a breakdown of U.S. states with the most guns per capita, and another one of U.S. states with the highest homicide rates. They don't match, indicating that it's not simply "the guns". FBI's Crime stats: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/shr https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crim...

janalsncm 3y ago

Homicides in the US today are 7.8/100k, which is still above the 1950 number. I wonder what accounts for the difference. Globally, the US has a higher rate than other countries likely due to guns, but it’s not like guns were illegal in 1950.

shadowgovt 3y ago
Having an entire generation where most of the men got drafted into a World War tends to dampen people's enthusiasm for violence.
- diogenescynic 3y ago
  That is a really profound point. I also bet people are a lot less likely to try something when every male over 18 has basically been trained in combat AND is healthy and fit...
tivert 3y ago
> Homicides in the US today are 7.8/100k, which is still above the 1950 number. I wonder what accounts for the difference. Globally, the US has a higher rate than other countries likely due to guns, but it’s not like guns were illegal in 1950. Could it be an urban/rural thing? I'm sure the US population was proportionally far more rural/small town in 1950 than today (on clear display from so many small towns depopulating).
- adgjlsfhk1 3y ago
  rural areas have higher per capita crime. it's just less commonly reported.
fngjdflmdflg 3y ago
The murder rate went up by 22% in 2020[0] but it had went down back to the 5 range in the 2010s. Here's the full chart from that PDF. 1950 | 1960 | 1970 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2017 | 2018 5.1 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 >it’s not like guns were illegal in 1950. true but even a murder rate of 5 is high compared to Europe and this is likely due in large part to guns largely being illegal there (except for Switzerland and seemingly also Finland) [0] https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/shr https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crim...
- adgjlsfhk1 3y ago
  note that while Switzerland is sometimes used as proof that guns aren't the problem, they do ban private ownership of ammo.
  - bradley13 3y ago
    As a Swiss: that's nonsense. How are you supposed to hunt, or go to the range, without ammunition? See article 16a of our weapons regulation: If you buy it legally, you are allowed to own it.
diogenescynic 3y ago
Lack of community, the break up of the nuclear family (i.e. more single parents=less child supervision), loneliness, mental illness and drug induced mental illness, inadequate access to mental and/or health care, and lack of any unified/mass culture that would set standards for behavior. Go checkout other countries that have a few of those things and you really will not find the rates of gun violence we have. Also, most of the gun crime seems to be black on black crimes, but it's taboo to even bring up racial differences without someone accusing you of being some Charles Murray-esque racist (even if you're just citing publicly available data).
southernplaces7 3y ago
>I wonder what accounts for the difference. Globally, the US has a higher rate than other countries likely due to guns, but it’s not like guns were illegal in 1950. The FBI'S Uniform Crime Statistics (last published for 2022, 1) break down homicide rates and numbers by demographics. Some reasons for the higher murder rates are right there in easily discernible patterns that have little to do with guns specifically. A majority of homicide is black on black crime among younger men, (though there'es no shortage of white offenders in the same age and gender group, bear in mind the population differential for the country) and it occurs across many states regardless of those states specific gun laws, or those of the municipalities in which these homicides occur. The above is considered by many to be extremely politically incorrect, even racist, but it is what the numbers clearly show based on minutely collected data. We can argue about socioeconomic and other social or political factors causing such homicide numbers in that demographic, but since the focus here is on guns as a possible cause of murder (a rather absurd idea since guns are inert objects unless made to cause harm by a human), that's a different argument. Also, if you look at a breakdown of U.S. states with the most guns per capita, and another one of U.S. states with the highest homicide rates. They don't match, indicating that it's not simply "the guns". FBI's Crime stats: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/shr https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crim...