Concur. I think this is a very volatile and potentially dangerous time to "do a startup" if you don't have a very focused and somewhat proven plan. I think it's

Concur. I think this is a very volatile and potentially dangerous time to "do a startup" if you don't have a very focused and somewhat proven plan. I think it's time to ignore what the Cool Kids are doing (in 2-4 years, they won't be cool) and go away from where they are so as to avoid following them into idiocy. This sounds easier than it actually is. The advice of "focus on real work and ignore the idiotic social climbing" or "build something useful" seems obvious and easy to follow, but when complete jackasses are getting funded and acq-hired for millions, it's easy to be swayed, embittered, confused, or otherwise influenced by the distractions. It's really hard for a 2x-year-old first-time founder not to find himself doing stupid stuff amid all the insanity. Winter is coming. That doesn't mean that "the crash" is here. It might be 4 years out, or 4 weeks away. It might be a sudden drop or a slow deflation. I have no idea when or how it will come, and I don't think anyone does. Still, there are some conclusions to take away from it. First, those of us who aren't ready to be Founders properly (that means, having enough VC connections that VCs consider you a social equal and will take the time to mentor you if they don't fund you) should probably sit this bubble out. Sure, being a founder provides a unique and immensely educational "startup experience", but taking a subordinate role as employee #37 at a VC darling is not much different and rarely any better than taking a regular job. Actually, I'd argue that it's often worse for subordinate employees, because VC-istan tends to have crappy health benefits, inexperienced and unstable management, and a lack of long-term focus on peoples' careers (because the company may not exist in 5 years). If your ambition is to be a Real Founder (again that's not some guy whittling at his trust fund, but someone who VCs are actively interested in, and who could get an EIR job with a phone call) and you're not there yet, there's probably not enough gas in this bubble left to get there before the end of it. People who are out of school now have a decent shot at being Real Founder material by the start of the next startup boom, if they really crack the books and work hard starting now and right through the bust... during which the wantrepreneurs and social climbers will get discouraged and leave, making the field less congested and giving the real players a chance to shine. Which means... it's time to take the focus away from what TechCrunch and Sequoia are doing, and back to the difficult and often obscure (if intrinsically rewarding, and often lucrative in the long term) campaign to improve one's technical skills through practice and hard work. This doesn't have to occur at a startup, although it can. But now is also a good time to go back to school, to work in a more established organization, to try out Real Technology instead of these silly social apps, and to start networking.