4 ms·
> It's one of those "the risk goes up the longer it's attached" type things. I presume it looks like a bell curve. These two statements contradict each other.
by bigbillheck 3y ago
> It's one of those "the risk goes up the longer it's attached" type things. I presume it looks like a bell curve.
These two statements contradict each other.
- mjhay 3y agoNot if the GP is describing the rate of change of the probability of transmission as a bell curve. We can assume 0% transmission when the bite first occurs, and assume that chance gradually plateaus at some point. That would look like an S-shaped logistic curve, whose derivative is bell-shaped.
- thehappypm 3y agoIt doesn’t— Most tick bites take 36-48 hours before you get infected (bell hump). But sometimes you get infected quickly (left tail) and sometimes it takes longer (right tail).
- happyopossum 3y agoThat'd be an s-curve, as it's always going up - a bell curve goes up then down.
- macintux 3y agoI suppose it depends on whether you’re charting the cumulative or the “instant” odds.
- thehappypm 3y agoThey’re the same thing; the bell curve is probability of being infected at time X specifically, and the S curve is the cumulative sum, that is, the probability you’ll have been infected by day X