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> modern economists are masters of telling those with power and wealth what they want to hear This is undoubtedly true. Do they have self-awareness around this

> modern economists are masters of telling those with power and wealth what they want to hear This is undoubtedly true. Do they have self-awareness around this? Or do they believe the things they say?

jordanb 3y ago
That's almost the wrong question. Self-delusion is a skill. The really good ones are good at convincing themselves that what they're saying is true. It's like the old George Costanza line: "Remember Jerry: it's not a lie, if you believe it."
- woooooo 3y ago
  It's been a few generations since Bretton Woods, today's true believers have been soaking up the prevailing consensus since high school. No need to convince yourself if it's all you've ever known.
- bell-cot 3y ago
  "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" -Upton Sinclair
bell-cot 3y ago
To maximize neural efficiency (and minimize embarrassing leaks) ~99% of economists should believe the gospel which they preach. While being quietly open to sudden changes in their theology, whenever reality yet again proves their creed disastrously wrong. Said changes, of course, are strictly a matter for their ~1% "Most Senior and Revered" priesthood to decide.
- gilbetron 3y ago
  > To maximize neural efficiency That's a fascinating premise, I need to chew on it.
starbugs 3y ago
I recommend the following podcast episode as a fascinating and fun to listen to anecdotal story of someone who "successfully" predicted the market: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/risk-return-the-jesse-livermore-story/id1547740313?i=1000643430825 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/risk-return-the-jesse-...
fuzzfactor 3y ago
>do they believe the things they say? Sure, but most theories are wrong and it can take a lifetime to find out beyond a doubt when the only worthwhile measure is 20/20 hindsight. So give them a break, somebody has to commit their life (and substantial mathematical ability) to completely wrong theories, and it's a whole lot more of a sustainable career if they can develop some kind of a following to accompany them along in their journey.

jordanb 3y ago

That's almost the wrong question. Self-delusion is a skill. The really good ones are good at convincing themselves that what they're saying is true. It's like the old George Costanza line: "Remember Jerry: it's not a lie, if you believe it."

woooooo 3y ago
It's been a few generations since Bretton Woods, today's true believers have been soaking up the prevailing consensus since high school. No need to convince yourself if it's all you've ever known.
bell-cot 3y ago
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" -Upton Sinclair

bell-cot 3y ago

To maximize neural efficiency (and minimize embarrassing leaks) ~99% of economists should believe the gospel which they preach. While being quietly open to sudden changes in their theology, whenever reality yet again proves their creed disastrously wrong. Said changes, of course, are strictly a matter for their ~1% "Most Senior and Revered" priesthood to decide.

gilbetron 3y ago
> To maximize neural efficiency That's a fascinating premise, I need to chew on it.

starbugs 3y ago

I recommend the following podcast episode as a fascinating and fun to listen to anecdotal story of someone who "successfully" predicted the market: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/risk-return-the-jesse-livermore-story/id1547740313?i=1000643430825 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/risk-return-the-jesse-...

fuzzfactor 3y ago

>do they believe the things they say? Sure, but most theories are wrong and it can take a lifetime to find out beyond a doubt when the only worthwhile measure is 20/20 hindsight. So give them a break, somebody has to commit their life (and substantial mathematical ability) to completely wrong theories, and it's a whole lot more of a sustainable career if they can develop some kind of a following to accompany them along in their journey.