4 ms·

https://sfist.com/2023/12/22/sure-enough-shoplifting-was-not-the-reason-for-closure-of-target-at-folsom-and-13th-streets/ https://sfist.com/2023/12/22/sure-enou

by ok_dad 3y ago

https://sfist.com/2023/12/22/sure-enough-shoplifting-was-not-the-reason-for-closure-of-target-at-folsom-and-13th-streets/ https://sfist.com/2023/12/22/sure-enough-shoplifting-was-not... Edit: this one from further down the thread too: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/29/briefing/shoplifting-data.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/29/briefing/shoplifting-data... For the first point, I usually assume the checkouts are run by third party vendors and charge a fee for the automated systems. I was saying that perhaps those third parties have started to raise prices for the operation of the checkout machines because it’s harder to find cheap labor, so now that corpos have gone all in on automated jobs they’re in a hard place. Maybe not, but I wasn’t saying the checked out item prices were being changed, that’d be stupid.

gruez 3y ago
>Edit: this one from further down the thread too: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/29/briefing/shoplifting-data https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/29/briefing/shoplifting-data... Your own source admits it's real, albeit limited to certain cities "But the increase in shoplifting appears to be limited to a few cities, rather than being truly national. In most of the country, retail theft has been lower this year than it was a few years ago, according to police data. There are some exceptions, particularly New York City, where shoplifting has spiked. But outside New York, shoplifting incidents in major cities have fallen 7 percent since 2019, before the Covid pandemic." That's hardly enough to support the claim it's "never shoplifting". >https://sfist.com/2023/12/22/sure-enough-shoplifting-was-not https://sfist.com/2023/12/22/sure-enough-shoplifting-was-not... The CNBC investigation this story was based on uses official crime statistics. Seems reasonable, until you realize that if officials aren't responding to crime reports (eg. lenient DAs), stores might not bother reporting, which makes it seem like crime is going down when it really isn't. You can see this in the nytimes article, which has both reported crime data as well as retailers' inventory ("shrink") data. The latter is obviously less susceptible to this effect, and we see that even though the reported crime rates were down 14% (45.1 -> 38.6), shrink was only down 3% (1.62 -> 1.57). The two above combined makes the exculpatory evidence for "it's never theft" to be pretty weak.
- ok_dad 3y ago
  So theft is up in NYC and no other major cities, that’s considered an outlier in that case. Everywhere else, theft is down and not an issue. Your argument against the second article was “maybe those poor corpos just aren’t reporting crime” lol. Shrink includes numbers for all lost or destroyed inventory not just theft, btw. Get real comrade.
  - gruez 3y ago
    > So theft is up in NYC and no other major cities, that’s considered an outlier in that case. Everywhere else, theft is down and not an issue. That's extrapolating too much from what the article actually claims. It only says that shoplifting incidents "in major cities" (whatever that means) as a whole has gone down. That's not the same as "So theft is up in NYC and no other major cities". Moreover, the claim you made isn't that thefts are down on average across the country, it's that "It’s never theft". Even if it's just new york, that invalidates your "It’s never theft" claim. Murder rates are down across the country as well, but that doesn't mean you can claim it's "never murder". >Your argument against the second article was “maybe those poor corpos just aren’t reporting crime” lol. Shrink includes numbers for all lost or destroyed inventory not just theft, btw. >Get real comrade. 1. Is "maybe those poor corpos just aren’t reporting crime" really that hard to believe? The National Crime Victimization Survey puts the reporting rate for property crimes to be 26%. Once you stack non-response to the actual survey on top, you'd be a fool to take any self-reported crime statistics at face value. 2. True, shrink could be caused by other factors, btu is there any reason to believe that "lost or destroyed inventory" would have gone up? I find it baffling that you dismiss the idea of retailers not reporting thefts, but are seemingly convinced of the idea that retailer reported shrink is caused by other factors without providing any justification, "comrade".

by ok_dad 3y ago

gruez 3y ago

>Edit: this one from further down the thread too: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/29/briefing/shoplifting-data https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/29/briefing/shoplifting-data... Your own source admits it's real, albeit limited to certain cities "But the increase in shoplifting appears to be limited to a few cities, rather than being truly national. In most of the country, retail theft has been lower this year than it was a few years ago, according to police data. There are some exceptions, particularly New York City, where shoplifting has spiked. But outside New York, shoplifting incidents in major cities have fallen 7 percent since 2019, before the Covid pandemic." That's hardly enough to support the claim it's "never shoplifting". >https://sfist.com/2023/12/22/sure-enough-shoplifting-was-not https://sfist.com/2023/12/22/sure-enough-shoplifting-was-not... The CNBC investigation this story was based on uses official crime statistics. Seems reasonable, until you realize that if officials aren't responding to crime reports (eg. lenient DAs), stores might not bother reporting, which makes it seem like crime is going down when it really isn't. You can see this in the nytimes article, which has both reported crime data as well as retailers' inventory ("shrink") data. The latter is obviously less susceptible to this effect, and we see that even though the reported crime rates were down 14% (45.1 -> 38.6), shrink was only down 3% (1.62 -> 1.57). The two above combined makes the exculpatory evidence for "it's never theft" to be pretty weak.

ok_dad 3y ago
So theft is up in NYC and no other major cities, that’s considered an outlier in that case. Everywhere else, theft is down and not an issue. Your argument against the second article was “maybe those poor corpos just aren’t reporting crime” lol. Shrink includes numbers for all lost or destroyed inventory not just theft, btw. Get real comrade.
- gruez 3y ago
  > So theft is up in NYC and no other major cities, that’s considered an outlier in that case. Everywhere else, theft is down and not an issue. That's extrapolating too much from what the article actually claims. It only says that shoplifting incidents "in major cities" (whatever that means) as a whole has gone down. That's not the same as "So theft is up in NYC and no other major cities". Moreover, the claim you made isn't that thefts are down on average across the country, it's that "It’s never theft". Even if it's just new york, that invalidates your "It’s never theft" claim. Murder rates are down across the country as well, but that doesn't mean you can claim it's "never murder". >Your argument against the second article was “maybe those poor corpos just aren’t reporting crime” lol. Shrink includes numbers for all lost or destroyed inventory not just theft, btw. >Get real comrade. 1. Is "maybe those poor corpos just aren’t reporting crime" really that hard to believe? The National Crime Victimization Survey puts the reporting rate for property crimes to be 26%. Once you stack non-response to the actual survey on top, you'd be a fool to take any self-reported crime statistics at face value. 2. True, shrink could be caused by other factors, btu is there any reason to believe that "lost or destroyed inventory" would have gone up? I find it baffling that you dismiss the idea of retailers not reporting thefts, but are seemingly convinced of the idea that retailer reported shrink is caused by other factors without providing any justification, "comrade".