3 ms·
Currently cannot. At end of the day interceptors and CIWS are still constrained by magazine depth. Ghetto 10-50k propellor drones with 2000km+ theatre range ar
by maxglute 3y ago
Currently cannot. At end of the day interceptors and CIWS are still constrained by magazine depth.
Ghetto 10-50k propellor drones with 2000km+ theatre range are (basically stand off capabilities) now are just (very) poverty mans subsonic TLAMs, which themselves are weaponeered in strike packages to account for interception, ecm, duds etc. But they're still sent in numbers designed to overwhelm finite local defense.
Ground reality right now is most US bases can get away with CIWS and interceptors because current garbage cheap propellor drones (Iran) are limited to dumb bulk drone attacks. But once you add some autonomous intelligence and coordinated swarm ability, a swarm of cheap propellor drone that can do basic evasion can make counter drone warfare unsustainably inefficient. A CIWS with 1500 rounds has 25-30 burst, a remotely reactive propellor drone that bleeds 3 bursts instead of 1, or a longer burst because it's no longer on a predictable trajectory and all of sudden base defense scaled to engage 200 targets goes dry engaging 50. Maybe INS and software enables limitted onboard compute to hug terrain lower, navigate in low covered approachces etc. Now an adversary who can't coordinate a 300 drone attack, can manage to pierce defense with 100. Optmize even more when software improves onboard target recognition and that tiny payload goes strait for vunerable assets. Or if base defense destroyed, it could loiter (because propeller) and lock down base for hours while defenders hide in hardened shelters. Or just glide itself into structures and sit around as unexploded ordnance that goes boom if cheap webcam recognizes motion / battery runs out. IMO there's a lot of capabilities that can be milked from a cheap platform.
The next thing you know the entire economics of said base defense stops being viable. The potential danger with intelligent autonomous swarms is it's feasible that eventually they'll make the cannon fodder to successful attack exchange unfavourable / unsustainable to defenders.