4 ms·

What odds would you give on something like payment infrastructure failing for 3 or more consecutive days happening in a year or 10 years?

jjav 3y ago
For it to happen just means 3 days without power/internet. 100% certainty.
zer00eyz 3y ago
Payment infrastructure? All of it? Some of it? Recently we had this: https://codeofmatt.com/list-of-2024-leap-day-bugs/ https://codeofmatt.com/list-of-2024-leap-day-bugs/ So a day for a grocery chain in Sweden and a gas station chain in New Zealand. For me "There is a 3 out of 4 chance of a damaging earthquake in the Bay Area in the next 30 years." From: https://www.earthquakeauthority.com/blog/2020/san-francisco-bay-area-earthquake-prediction-risk https://www.earthquakeauthority.com/blog/2020/san-francisco-... Is this a week of no power (so no cc's, no atm, no cell service). A cornal mass ejection has 1 in 194 odds, is it bad enough that it's a grid killer? I don't know what the odds are for that (as in having EMP), and its gonna be fun if we see it coming to! A major payment processor failing, or payment network failing for a few days is possible. What happens when a grocery chain is open and suddenly "cash only". It has happened before. You dont need a big, or national event where social order is maintained but cash is essential to keeping things moving.
- Infinity315 3y ago
  > Payment infrastructure? All of it? Some of it? The point at which the only way of transacting is through cash during the duration of this outage.
  - zer00eyz 3y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Katrina_in_New_Orleans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Katrina_i... We get one of these regionally ever decade or so. Go back another (few) decade and weeks of no power in upstate NY (dairy farmers working with the amish to hand milk cows... people are resourceful). As a kid 3-4 days without power post hurricane wasn't a big deal. If plastic can't pay for things, I think it's gonna get ugly pretty quick, keep some cash around the house is a good policy.

jjav 3y ago

For it to happen just means 3 days without power/internet. 100% certainty.

zer00eyz 3y ago

Payment infrastructure? All of it? Some of it? Recently we had this: https://codeofmatt.com/list-of-2024-leap-day-bugs/ https://codeofmatt.com/list-of-2024-leap-day-bugs/ So a day for a grocery chain in Sweden and a gas station chain in New Zealand. For me "There is a 3 out of 4 chance of a damaging earthquake in the Bay Area in the next 30 years." From: https://www.earthquakeauthority.com/blog/2020/san-francisco-bay-area-earthquake-prediction-risk https://www.earthquakeauthority.com/blog/2020/san-francisco-... Is this a week of no power (so no cc's, no atm, no cell service). A cornal mass ejection has 1 in 194 odds, is it bad enough that it's a grid killer? I don't know what the odds are for that (as in having EMP), and its gonna be fun if we see it coming to! A major payment processor failing, or payment network failing for a few days is possible. What happens when a grocery chain is open and suddenly "cash only". It has happened before. You dont need a big, or national event where social order is maintained but cash is essential to keeping things moving.

Infinity315 3y ago
> Payment infrastructure? All of it? Some of it? The point at which the only way of transacting is through cash during the duration of this outage.
- zer00eyz 3y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Katrina_in_New_Orleans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Katrina_i... We get one of these regionally ever decade or so. Go back another (few) decade and weeks of no power in upstate NY (dairy farmers working with the amish to hand milk cows... people are resourceful). As a kid 3-4 days without power post hurricane wasn't a big deal. If plastic can't pay for things, I think it's gonna get ugly pretty quick, keep some cash around the house is a good policy.