4 ms·
It's generous of Reddit to make that offer. The last time I recall having such an opportunity was VALinux back in 1999. However, despite having a 4 letter use
by linsomniac 3y ago
It's generous of Reddit to make that offer. The last time I recall having such an opportunity was VALinux back in 1999. However, despite having a 4 letter username and "cake day" in 2008, and regular, solid contributions, I just barely didn't qualify. Karma whores easily do qualify, so that's a bit hard to swallow. But my wife does do a LOT of interaction there and did qualify, so I'm trying to figure out exactly what to do. My thoughts so far:
The big problem is I'm not sure that Reddit, the company, really understands it's business. Though I was expecting the protests of the last year to have gone much further than they did, I think Reddit's response could have been much better, and their response demonstrates their lack of a solid business plan. In particular, the importance of redditors and moderators to their business isn't reflected in their plans (AFAICT).
I think that may end up backfiring.
I feel like their IPO would be better priced closer to a 4.5B valuation rather than the 6.5B they seem to be targeting. There is some potential upside to it, as there might be some justification for a market cap of 10B. But there's a big wildcard in there: the Directed Share Program to redditors have no "cooling off" period, so there's likely going to be some volatility due to "get in, get out". But, the DSP shares have "one vote per share", which might contribute towards people holding them. But that's 8% of offered shares, and offered shares are around 20% of total valuation, so that may be a small enough percentage of shares with high volatility that it won't have a big impact.
The WallStreetBets crowd might have an impact, that will be fun to watch from afar. I'm not expecting anything there, but who knows.
I'm kind of expecting some backlash of the community to the extraction of value by Reddit the company, but I haven't really heard any noises along those lines. I could see their value dropping significantly over the next year because of this. There's a lot of fatigue over the techno-elite extracting value off "the little people's backs". And Lemmy is really well positioned for facilitating a mass exit from Reddit.
The recent news of advertisers making posts that look like regular user posts is, IMHO, leaning in a bad direction. In my mind, that is reminding me of one of the primary things I've seen in Facebook that has dropped my engagement to near-zero levels.
But, there are a lot of other tech companies watching Reddit and hoping for a good IPO leading the way for other similar IPOs. Maybe that will lead interest.
Over all, I'm expecting short term excitement, but longer term rough times for Reddit the company.
But, my investment plans have, in too many situations, been exactly the opposite of the market; I've bought just before the market drops and sold right before it goes up...
- SV_BubbleTime 3y agoEveryone seems to make this mistake that read its core business is social. And that means they sell data. They’re selling influence. Mostly to kids. To the terminally online. The new Politically Religious. The standard MO to ban all decent isn’t because the admins/mods actually disagree, it’s that it makes the echo chamber more uniform. They’re culling wrong think to sell things, sure, but more so ideas. When you consider that “reputation” is a product that politicians, celebrities and companies can just purchase, I think it makes a lot of sense what Reddit can sell.
- linsomniac 3y agoI'm going to disagree with you that Reddit is selling influence. I think they're selling eyeballs and user-created data. Both of which highly depend on Reddit's reputation with it's users, and that is what I think Reddit is going to have problems with.
- davidw 3y agoThanks for the quality comment. I basically just buy and hold VTSAX and call it good, rather than worrying about individual companies. I'm mostly just curious if there'll be enough of a 'pop' with the stock to make buying some shares worth it.
- linsomniac 3y agoThat is generally a very good strategy. I have a lot (~50%) of my investments in Target Retirement Plans, though I have put them out about 5 years from my real retirement date, just to keep them a bit more high-return longer since I feel like I can handle that risk. However, my FIL gave me some great advice 5-6 years ago: Take a little bit, and put it into things you like, to keep investing "fun". In my case I'm doing around 2% in "fun stocks". Personally, it's pretty hard to argue with since my first "fun stock" that I did that with was TSLA, and I got a 20x return on that. My new "fun" set have been other EV and energy stocks, largely, and have generally done quite poorly, a 2-3 of them are down 95+%, but that's over 2 years and my window was more like 5, so time will tell. A handful are up 30-50%. So, some of it depends on your definition of "fun". :-D