4 ms·
I plan to short it soon after the IPO
by unstatusthequo 3y ago
I plan to short it soon after the IPO
- parpfish 3y agoI’ve thought about doing this as a more general IPO strategy on the assumption that there’s going to be a sell-off of employee owned equity. I’m sure that there’s a way to estimate the number of shares vested by employees and come up with an estimate sell-off volume for day 0-1
- dgfitz 3y agoAren’t employees usually restricted on selling for like 6 months?
- parpfish 3y agoWell then you should circle that date 6-mo after IPO (or the end of any non-IPO blackout period) as days with mass sell-offs regardless of the stock price
- dgfitz 3y agoYou act like that isn’t cooked into the optimizations of the market. It is, or everyone could follow your get-rich-quick scheme. Go ahead, try us a few time, see how it goes.
- parpfish 3y agoBut is that actually baked in to the price? (I’m legitimately asking, not being argumentative) Back when I worked at a big public company where we had options and employee blackout dates, there would almost always be a dip in the stock price when the blackout was lifted
- awithrow 3y agoThe "baked into the price" also includes the price of options. I would not be surprised to find that the price premium of options dated around the 6 month window would negate the gain from the drop.