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My hopes (and fears) about AI don't seem to match the reality which is that, until we reach AGI, humans are the sole source of creativity and novelty. I think

My hopes (and fears) about AI don't seem to match the reality which is that, until we reach AGI, humans are the sole source of creativity and novelty. I think about it like this, would ChatGPT invent Google Search if we had ChatGPT in 2000? Probably not. LLMs seem to exist in this realm of "as smart as an average human with a really big encyclopedia". They're confidently wrong, invent fantasy to defend bad reasoning, and struggle to envision anything outside of their dataset (known things). Ask an AI to construct an entirely new solution to a novel unsolved problem. What always occurs is the AI outputs a generic solution from its dataset that is either half-baked, made-up, or derivative. I'm not even dissing AI, I love AI, but we have yet to see AI apply novel solutions to novel problems. On our current path, AI is not going to dream up the next Uber without Lyft first existing. It won't dream up a new fusion reactor design or an entirely new way to generate cheap energy. But maybe this is perfect! At the moment we have this sweet spot - AI without agency, without awareness, and without superintelligence. This is the kind of AI I want as a household robot or AI driver. This is one I can empathize with but also know that it isn't doing anything at all if I'm not engaging it with a prompt. AGI would mean an ability to have novel solutions and in-turn would be far less stable for society. Where's the line between a mind that has novel thoughts and one that has intrusive thoughts? Maybe your AGI coder isn't content with no-pay and working 24/7. That'll be fun.

blinkyfish 3y ago
The problem as I see it is, AI doesn’t have to be extraordinary or innovative to cause major sociopolitical disruption in a capitalist, competitive, market driven society. It just has to be good enough to allow companies to save a shitload of money by eliminating jobs. And make no mistake, this technology is already close to that point. Microsoft expends vast amounts of capital on software engineering salaries and stock options every year. They want to shift that in their favor because their primary motives are completely driven by competition and market demand. Our society is not prepared for this much in the same way it was not prepared for social media algorithms that have wreaked immeasurable havoc on people’s perception and objectivity. But yet again, we’re allowing a few wealthy tech bros from Silicon Valley to seal our fate without very much oversight…
throwuwu 3y ago
What makes you so sure that problem solving and invention aren’t just engineering challenges that we can solve by combining LLMs with well designed algorithms? The way I see it, we’ve just discovered something fundamental like steam power or electricity and we’re currently in the very inefficient stage of brute force solutions like mine pumps driven by condensing engines that needed tonnes of cheap readily available coal and arc lamps running off an entire room full of galvanic piles. In other words, we’re just throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks; but stick it will and then we’ll quickly be on to locomotives and lightbulbs.
- sirmoveon 3y ago
  You guys buy too much into the marketable fuzz. In the last 15 years we've had multiple other technologies that were supposed to change the way we live (3D printing, Crypto, VR, EV, self-driving, now AI). It's just the VC scheme: Over-promise/under-deliver = Profit AI is and will continue to be a search on steroids.
  - pixl97 3y ago
    You're buying into too much market fuzz too. That internet thing going big never happened and cell phones turned out to be bust, all that hype for nothing..... See how cherry picking works. Also, EVs are a bust, wut?
    - sirmoveon 3y ago
      Not saying they are a bust, either of them. Just to scale down expectations because AI, even the generative type won't be coming up with novel solutions. EV aren't a bust either, but case in point... manufacturers are already anouncing scale downs because expectations were too high. Combustion will stay around for quite a bit given the battery production constraints.
  - throwuwu 3y ago
    Rome wasn’t built in a day, all of those technologies will still be around 20 years from now and will likely be powering a lot of everyday stuff. Short timelines are hype, the technology itself is anything but.

blinkyfish 3y ago

The problem as I see it is, AI doesn’t have to be extraordinary or innovative to cause major sociopolitical disruption in a capitalist, competitive, market driven society. It just has to be good enough to allow companies to save a shitload of money by eliminating jobs. And make no mistake, this technology is already close to that point. Microsoft expends vast amounts of capital on software engineering salaries and stock options every year. They want to shift that in their favor because their primary motives are completely driven by competition and market demand. Our society is not prepared for this much in the same way it was not prepared for social media algorithms that have wreaked immeasurable havoc on people’s perception and objectivity. But yet again, we’re allowing a few wealthy tech bros from Silicon Valley to seal our fate without very much oversight…

throwuwu 3y ago

What makes you so sure that problem solving and invention aren’t just engineering challenges that we can solve by combining LLMs with well designed algorithms? The way I see it, we’ve just discovered something fundamental like steam power or electricity and we’re currently in the very inefficient stage of brute force solutions like mine pumps driven by condensing engines that needed tonnes of cheap readily available coal and arc lamps running off an entire room full of galvanic piles. In other words, we’re just throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks; but stick it will and then we’ll quickly be on to locomotives and lightbulbs.

sirmoveon 3y ago
You guys buy too much into the marketable fuzz. In the last 15 years we've had multiple other technologies that were supposed to change the way we live (3D printing, Crypto, VR, EV, self-driving, now AI). It's just the VC scheme: Over-promise/under-deliver = Profit AI is and will continue to be a search on steroids.
- pixl97 3y ago
  You're buying into too much market fuzz too. That internet thing going big never happened and cell phones turned out to be bust, all that hype for nothing..... See how cherry picking works. Also, EVs are a bust, wut?
  - sirmoveon 3y ago
    Not saying they are a bust, either of them. Just to scale down expectations because AI, even the generative type won't be coming up with novel solutions. EV aren't a bust either, but case in point... manufacturers are already anouncing scale downs because expectations were too high. Combustion will stay around for quite a bit given the battery production constraints.
- throwuwu 3y ago
  Rome wasn’t built in a day, all of those technologies will still be around 20 years from now and will likely be powering a lot of everyday stuff. Short timelines are hype, the technology itself is anything but.