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It is, like many an intellectual technological innovation, currently the Churchillian "worst, except for all the other options." Once a company is traded publi
by istultus 3y ago
It is, like many an intellectual technological innovation, currently the Churchillian "worst, except for all the other options."
Once a company is traded publicly, the market, over a long time horizon [1], usually gives a good value estimate to the company. In the short-run you have to contend with the different ways to juke the price, such as share buybacks just before the CEO is to get a bonus etc. Heck, even in Boeing's case, the market corrected for the stock price (especially if you consider inflation) once planes started falling out of the sky, and the company started to change. Now only doors are falling out of the sky! It's still a price we shouldn't be willing to pay for a market correction - and that's where efficient regulation comes into play, itself a very fraught tool to get right. All in all, we suck at forecasting, understanding, and learning from outlier events. Maybe it's an inherent problem.
[1] with the usual caveat that the market can remain irrational longer than the plane can remain airborne
- _heimdall 3y agoMarket valuations for tech companies have been irrational for years. At least in view, there are enough examples in the last couple decades of companies being consistently valued at such high multiples of profit and revenue that it can't really be waved off as short term market corrections.
- Jensson 3y ago> Market valuations for tech companies have been irrational for years No they weren't, unless by "years" you men 2-3. Google, Facebook etc were expected to grow and they did grow to match those valuations, they weren't overvalued. When you know a market will grow then you price that in. Some companies don't grow as expected, but most do, the market is usually pretty good at estimating.