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This technology will replace your electrician

by ximeng 3y ago

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
Not in the near future. And given my town has a weeks-long waiting list for electricians (and very few young people taking up apprenticeships), that sounds terrific.
- ximeng 3y ago
  People’s working lives are 50 years or so. If the near future arrives in ten years that’s near enough to derail people’s careers. An electrician is in most cases already not doing that well (otherwise those apprenticeships would be full). Replacing them will be terrific for people employing electricians like you. Not for electricians trying to accumulate their own capital through labour.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > If the near future arrives in ten years that’s near enough to derail people’s careers We aren’t a decade out from electrician robots. > electrician is in most cases already not doing that well (otherwise those apprenticeships would be full) My electrician takes his family on ski vacations in Japan. In many communities, young people simply don’t want to go into the trades. > Not for electricians trying to accumulate their own capital through labour Agree. But at the point we have electrician robots we have also eliminated a lot of other tedious (and dangerous) labour. A house full of servants becomes lower middle-class reality.
    - ximeng 3y ago
      It doesn’t need to be a decade. It can be 40 years and it’s still going to be a problem for someone trying to pay off a house. Google says there are a million electricians earning an average of 60k in the US (I guess mostly not going on ski trips to Japan on that salary). That’s 60bn a year on the table for anyone who can automate that work. How long would you bet it will be before it’s automated? I’d say not ten years but I’d be surprised if it were not done in fifty. This is great for anyone who has sufficient capital to afford housing, food, and energy. Long term decreases in real salaries means people are more dependent on state / company / family gifts. People without access to this have bad lives. Question is how generous the gifts will be.

This technology will replace your electrician

by ximeng 3y ago

This technology will replace your electrician

Not in the near future. And given my town has a weeks-long waiting list for electricians (and very few young people taking up apprenticeships), that sounds terrific.

ximeng 3y ago
People’s working lives are 50 years or so. If the near future arrives in ten years that’s near enough to derail people’s careers. An electrician is in most cases already not doing that well (otherwise those apprenticeships would be full). Replacing them will be terrific for people employing electricians like you. Not for electricians trying to accumulate their own capital through labour.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > If the near future arrives in ten years that’s near enough to derail people’s careers We aren’t a decade out from electrician robots. > electrician is in most cases already not doing that well (otherwise those apprenticeships would be full) My electrician takes his family on ski vacations in Japan. In many communities, young people simply don’t want to go into the trades. > Not for electricians trying to accumulate their own capital through labour Agree. But at the point we have electrician robots we have also eliminated a lot of other tedious (and dangerous) labour. A house full of servants becomes lower middle-class reality.
  - ximeng 3y ago
    It doesn’t need to be a decade. It can be 40 years and it’s still going to be a problem for someone trying to pay off a house. Google says there are a million electricians earning an average of 60k in the US (I guess mostly not going on ski trips to Japan on that salary). That’s 60bn a year on the table for anyone who can automate that work. How long would you bet it will be before it’s automated? I’d say not ten years but I’d be surprised if it were not done in fifty. This is great for anyone who has sufficient capital to afford housing, food, and energy. Long term decreases in real salaries means people are more dependent on state / company / family gifts. People without access to this have bad lives. Question is how generous the gifts will be.