4 ms·

OK so what happens if every next year will be like this? How much time have we left?

by xpl 3y ago

namaria 3y ago
I often think about that for 2 main reasons: most of the scenarios published in the media are the 'low end' of impacts because people involved are concerned about being considered doomerists, and a lot of the predictions and whatever preparations are done are based on extrapolation on known factors. I'm in a coastal area and I'm really concerned that in 10-15 years time a combination of factors like a strong El Niño, a freak storm with a unlucky mix of wind and tide creating a mega surge and not foreseen changes in ice loss at the poles could make something happen that we'd thought would only be a risk towards end of the century.
hammock 3y ago
No one knows, because apparently something is gravely wrong with our climate models
- RGamma 3y ago
  Something is wrong with our psyche. We have no time left, since every serious mitigation mechanism is a gigantic effort that should have been started in the 70s. We're basically behaving like a smoker who's looking for optimistic lung cancer statistics, hoping not having to stop.
  - quantified 3y ago
    People would need to behave very differently. Stop driving so much (where will you live and work? kids need to give up soccer practice, etc.), shipping so much therefore consuming so much, building with concrete, etc. Ain't going to happen. They'll drive their SUV and complain, at least in the USA. Suppliers won't stop supplying until demanders stop demanding.
    - RGamma 3y ago
      Just waiting for the cancer to arrive...
    - aaomidi 3y ago
      Want people to stop driving so much? Do a remote work mandate. People are not going to stop demanding until we give them the ability to.
abdullahkhalids 3y ago
My main concern is food supply. Current models estimate less than < 10% reduction in food supply due to concurrent weather extremes [1]. But these models don't take into account the political economy. Simultaneous crop failures in multiple parts of the world can very easily result in food export bans that can seriously exacerbate food shortages in some countries. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38906-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38906-7

OK so what happens if every next year will be like this? How much time have we left?

by xpl 3y ago

OK so what happens if every next year will be like this? How much time have we left?

I often think about that for 2 main reasons: most of the scenarios published in the media are the 'low end' of impacts because people involved are concerned about being considered doomerists, and a lot of the predictions and whatever preparations are done are based on extrapolation on known factors. I'm in a coastal area and I'm really concerned that in 10-15 years time a combination of factors like a strong El Niño, a freak storm with a unlucky mix of wind and tide creating a mega surge and not foreseen changes in ice loss at the poles could make something happen that we'd thought would only be a risk towards end of the century.

hammock 3y ago

No one knows, because apparently something is gravely wrong with our climate models

RGamma 3y ago
Something is wrong with our psyche. We have no time left, since every serious mitigation mechanism is a gigantic effort that should have been started in the 70s. We're basically behaving like a smoker who's looking for optimistic lung cancer statistics, hoping not having to stop.
- quantified 3y ago
  People would need to behave very differently. Stop driving so much (where will you live and work? kids need to give up soccer practice, etc.), shipping so much therefore consuming so much, building with concrete, etc. Ain't going to happen. They'll drive their SUV and complain, at least in the USA. Suppliers won't stop supplying until demanders stop demanding.
  - RGamma 3y ago
    Just waiting for the cancer to arrive...
  - aaomidi 3y ago
    Want people to stop driving so much? Do a remote work mandate. People are not going to stop demanding until we give them the ability to.

abdullahkhalids 3y ago

My main concern is food supply. Current models estimate less than < 10% reduction in food supply due to concurrent weather extremes [1]. But these models don't take into account the political economy. Simultaneous crop failures in multiple parts of the world can very easily result in food export bans that can seriously exacerbate food shortages in some countries. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38906-7 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38906-7