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In my view, since I was the one that said it, anything more than 5 years away is perpetually 5 years away until it's been proven. Yes, eventually when Starship
by mgiampapa 3y ago
In my view, since I was the one that said it, anything more than 5 years away is perpetually 5 years away until it's been proven. Yes, eventually when Starship has enough launches and a track record it will get human rated by NASA to carry astronauts. This is the only actual certification for human space flight worth paying attention to right now. It's possible to get on a rocket otherwise, but the US government isn't going to pay for the ride. Getting flight certified by NASA is expensive and requires a level of experience with the vehicle that doesn't make sense for at least 5 years given we have a cheap and safe ride to LEO via Falcon / Dragon. Nobody is going to rush human flight on Starship, it's only going to have people on it once it's already in space.
- avmich 3y agoI'll still take this as progress. With thermonuclear reactors it's perennial 20 years, similar for flying cars, in-house robots, manned flight to the Mars, so 5 years as a stand-in for "foreseeable future" sounds like a good step ahead.
- grecy 3y agoI just looked it up. The first Falcon 9 flight was June 2010. The first Falcon 9 with astronauts was May 2020. 10 years to get human certified.
- mgiampapa 3y agoThat was also with a rush order on it due to the Shuttle's retirement.
- grecy 3y agoGood point. In those 10 years Falcon 9 flew 84 times [1]. So I would think Starship needs to fly roughly a similar number of times before it will be human rated. Even if they launch one a month from now on, it will take ~7 years. So I think we're a while away from NASA certifying Starship for human flight, though I wonder in SpaceX would just put their own people on it regardless. [1] https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/g32758515/falcon-9-anniversary/ https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/g32758515/fal...