3 ms·

The problem with the shoreline paradox isn't just about resolution. It's about the unique geological features _within_ that resolution. I live near the Forth ri

by cnity 3y ago

The problem with the shoreline paradox isn't just about resolution. It's about the unique geological features _within_ that resolution. I live near the Forth river. At a low resolution, the distance from my location to a location on the bank of the other side of the river will look very short. But at a higher resolution, the distance is an order of magnitude larger. My original estimate at the chosen resolution was way off! Framing the issue as one only of resolution misses my point. There is a degree to which setbacks are completely unknowable without actually performing the task. People need to learn to embrace this. I mean, ignore my warning with peril: you can keep claiming you simply need to take better measurements, make more accurate estimates, whatever. But the next time you get it way off remember this conversation :).

Shrezzing 3y ago
To continue with your metaphor using the Forth, if your project is to get from North Berwick to St Andrews, and you chose to estimate it "as the crow flies", your result would be about 20-30km. Whereas, if you chose to traverse the Forth up to Stirling, then return along the northern coastline, you'd be looking at 200km. The Firth of Forth is visible with the naked eye from the ISS though. So picking a resolution that misses that geological feature and making an estimate for crossing the Forth that's out by an order of magnitude would be transparently and self-evidently incorrect... Particularly if you and your team are on the bank of the Forth when you make the estimate. Picking an exact resolution is challenging, but picking a "good enough" resolution that minimises "out by an order of magnitude" errors really isn't for most tasks unless you're taking part in the most cutting edge of research.
- cnity 3y ago
  I don't know what the equivalent of the ISS is for project estimation, but I sure as heck don't have access to it!

by cnity 3y ago

Shrezzing 3y ago

To continue with your metaphor using the Forth, if your project is to get from North Berwick to St Andrews, and you chose to estimate it "as the crow flies", your result would be about 20-30km. Whereas, if you chose to traverse the Forth up to Stirling, then return along the northern coastline, you'd be looking at 200km. The Firth of Forth is visible with the naked eye from the ISS though. So picking a resolution that misses that geological feature and making an estimate for crossing the Forth that's out by an order of magnitude would be transparently and self-evidently incorrect... Particularly if you and your team are on the bank of the Forth when you make the estimate. Picking an exact resolution is challenging, but picking a "good enough" resolution that minimises "out by an order of magnitude" errors really isn't for most tasks unless you're taking part in the most cutting edge of research.

cnity 3y ago
I don't know what the equivalent of the ISS is for project estimation, but I sure as heck don't have access to it!