4 ms·

I feel like you are cherry picking extremely high-profile projects that you were personally not involved in, so (1) sometimes estimations do end up wrong and m

I feel like you are cherry picking extremely high-profile projects that you were personally not involved in, so (1) sometimes estimations do end up wrong and mistakes can happen, so being able to pick any example and choosing the ones that failed is disingenuous (2) picking someone else’s projects means you have absolutely no insight into the process. sometimes I will very intentionally under- or over-estimate a deadline for political - or really practical - reasons and someone on the outside will think I messed up. the projects you picked are extremely high profile and have to contend with a lot of political forces and are probably the worst examples to pick

jacques_chester 3y ago
Bent Flyvbjerg calls (2) the "sublime". He points out that disastrous megaprojects get authorized because folks with the money and authority simply ignore the haters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bent_Flyvbjerg#Megaproject_planning_and_management https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bent_Flyvbjerg#Megaproject_pla...
beryilma 3y ago
I picked those projects because they were high-profile. But I'll give you another example that I am intimately involved with. Take the software/web accessibility remediation mess where universities and companies are being sued left and right for ADA (Americans with Disabilities Act) violations. These organizations know the real threat of legal liabilities, make projects to improve accessibility of their products (web sites, etc.), and routinely blow up their project timelines only to start with new projects. So the concept of "deadlines are real and have consequences" firmly applies here. Yet, NONE of these projects are completed on time. There are many reason for these project failures, but my original argument still stands in this case: "Estimating in the second type of environment is also bogus".

jacques_chester 3y ago

Bent Flyvbjerg calls (2) the "sublime". He points out that disastrous megaprojects get authorized because folks with the money and authority simply ignore the haters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bent_Flyvbjerg#Megaproject_planning_and_management https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bent_Flyvbjerg#Megaproject_pla...

beryilma 3y ago

I picked those projects because they were high-profile. But I'll give you another example that I am intimately involved with. Take the software/web accessibility remediation mess where universities and companies are being sued left and right for ADA (Americans with Disabilities Act) violations. These organizations know the real threat of legal liabilities, make projects to improve accessibility of their products (web sites, etc.), and routinely blow up their project timelines only to start with new projects. So the concept of "deadlines are real and have consequences" firmly applies here. Yet, NONE of these projects are completed on time. There are many reason for these project failures, but my original argument still stands in this case: "Estimating in the second type of environment is also bogus".