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It used to be most programmers change to other careers within 10 years. Not sure if that's still true, but if so - I think it means most won't have to worry abo

It used to be most programmers change to other careers within 10 years. Not sure if that's still true, but if so - I think it means most won't have to worry about being around long enough for ageism to be a problem...

dragonwriter 3y ago
> It used to be most programmers change to other careers within 10 years. I don't think that's true, unless you are counting the more-senior roles which tended to require programming experience (e.g., Systems Analyst in many schemes) as “other careers” rather than just a step up the information systems career ladder.
- mech422 3y ago
  I didn't think it meant that... this was probably a 5-10 year old stat...lemme see if I can find it.
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    There could be timing and similar context effects there, too; bet that looked different just before vs. 5-6 years after the dotcom crash, for instance. (Neither of those seems to be the time you are discussing, just pointing to that as an example.)
    - mech422 3y ago
      Oh - I replied above with some anecdata from stack overflow, also surprised that BLS is predicting negative job growth for programmers (first time in my life, I think)
- mech422 3y ago
  Hmm - I can't find anything except anecdata atm (0) based on Stack Overflow Developer Survey 2023, but it appears that the numbers drop off pretty sharply starting at the 10-14 year mark. Wish I could find the original article I saw years ago. Also, This(1) has to be the first time I can remember BLS predicting negative growth in the programmer job market! I always remember it being listed with decent job growth... 0) https://codegym.cc/groups/posts/560-50-years-and-counting-how-long-a-software-developers-career-can-last- https://codegym.cc/groups/posts/560-50-years-and-counting-ho... 1) https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm#tab-6 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...
  - dragonwriter 3y ago
    I think they've been negative on “programmers” for a while, but you’ve got to be careful with the BLS on software-related professions, because “programmers” are a different category than, for instance, “software developers” https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/... who have a much rosier outlook. If you read the descriptions, “programmers” are pretty limited (“They turn the designs created by software developers and engineers into instructions that a computer can follow.”)
    - mech422 3y ago
      Oh nice! that must be it then.. I don't remember seeing it negative before - thanks! the stack overflow survey is a bit depressing though - we seem to lose everyone early... Seems like only 30% of people make it past 15 years. Which surprises me, as my circle of programming friends all have like 20+ years. Maybe thats why we keep re-inventing stuff :-/

dragonwriter 3y ago

> It used to be most programmers change to other careers within 10 years. I don't think that's true, unless you are counting the more-senior roles which tended to require programming experience (e.g., Systems Analyst in many schemes) as “other careers” rather than just a step up the information systems career ladder.

mech422 3y ago
I didn't think it meant that... this was probably a 5-10 year old stat...lemme see if I can find it.
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  There could be timing and similar context effects there, too; bet that looked different just before vs. 5-6 years after the dotcom crash, for instance. (Neither of those seems to be the time you are discussing, just pointing to that as an example.)
  - mech422 3y ago
    Oh - I replied above with some anecdata from stack overflow, also surprised that BLS is predicting negative job growth for programmers (first time in my life, I think)
mech422 3y ago
Hmm - I can't find anything except anecdata atm (0) based on Stack Overflow Developer Survey 2023, but it appears that the numbers drop off pretty sharply starting at the 10-14 year mark. Wish I could find the original article I saw years ago. Also, This(1) has to be the first time I can remember BLS predicting negative growth in the programmer job market! I always remember it being listed with decent job growth... 0) https://codegym.cc/groups/posts/560-50-years-and-counting-how-long-a-software-developers-career-can-last- https://codegym.cc/groups/posts/560-50-years-and-counting-ho... 1) https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm#tab-6 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  I think they've been negative on “programmers” for a while, but you’ve got to be careful with the BLS on software-related professions, because “programmers” are a different category than, for instance, “software developers” https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/... who have a much rosier outlook. If you read the descriptions, “programmers” are pretty limited (“They turn the designs created by software developers and engineers into instructions that a computer can follow.”)
  - mech422 3y ago
    Oh nice! that must be it then.. I don't remember seeing it negative before - thanks! the stack overflow survey is a bit depressing though - we seem to lose everyone early... Seems like only 30% of people make it past 15 years. Which surprises me, as my circle of programming friends all have like 20+ years. Maybe thats why we keep re-inventing stuff :-/