I'm onboard with trusting data driven and numbers approach. This one just seems like a bad one if it doesn't account for how obvious actions would alter its res

I'm onboard with trusting data driven and numbers approach. This one just seems like a bad one if it doesn't account for how obvious actions would alter its results. But as some other comment said, maybe this base rate is not the whole story and it's just one ingredient in the total risk calculation. That makes more sense.