You can't make a half-counterfactual comparison like that because the COVID rate may have been impacted by the lockdown. Assume, for the sake of argument, that

You can't make a half-counterfactual comparison like that because the COVID rate may have been impacted by the lockdown. Assume, for the sake of argument, that lockdowns worked smashingly well. Then, you'd see a) very few COVID deaths and b) relatively more "side effects". That is exactly what you're using to argue that they didn't work.