> Showing that you have some accuracy predicting any number of other things does nothing to prove you have accuracy predicting a % chance of a unique event like

> Showing that you have some accuracy predicting any number of other things does nothing to prove you have accuracy predicting a % chance of a unique event like those ones. When someone has a track record of consistently predicting these "unique" events better than average, then clearly there must be some pattern there that they're picking up on and the events aren't as unique as one would think. At the end of the day, someone who financially invests based on these predictions will eventually end up richer than someone who doesn't, whether you believe that should be possible or not.