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The Airbus backlog is so comically long it's hard for me to imagine why United would even suggest that they could get A321s. If they're not already in the queue

The Airbus backlog is so comically long it's hard for me to imagine why United would even suggest that they could get A321s. If they're not already in the queue, they're not getting A321s. Is there something I'm missing? Some way for United to jump the Airbus queue?

gmm1990 3y ago
The mention if its economical so maybe pay someone more than face value further up the line for their planes
- electroly 3y ago
  Ahh, thank you. That was probably obvious to aviation insiders but I hadn't connected the dots.
- RandomBacon 3y ago
  Startup idea: instead of ticket scalping, plane scalping.
icegreentea2 3y ago
I don't think they believe they realistically have the ability to jump the queue. But they are publicly announcing their displeasure at Boeing. Like this message is literally saying "we are stuck with our second choice". As a vendor, this is a sign that you're really boned. Maybe this order will go through, but you're going to have to work your butt off after this one.
dylan604 3y ago
Probably court of public opinion noise making for possibly investors?? It's not like they can use it as leverage against Boeing, as Boeing would be well versed in Airbus production capabilities. So, get out in the public to would be arm chair emotional investors to win some over is me being generous in such a lame comment from them.
bombcar 3y ago
How comically long does the queue get before Airbus adds more capacity?
- t0mas88 3y ago
  Very very very long. More capacity takes huge investments and many years to bring online. Airbus won't do that for a temporary increase in orders. Large airplane orders are always significantly discounted. Airbus has an easy option here, reduce discounts (which rumor is they have already done significantly) and make a lot of money. Let the queue be the queue, they can't add extra capacity in the short term anyway.
- icegreentea2 3y ago
  Airbus is adding capacity, but the queue will remain long. Aircraft have really long life cycles. A model can remain in production for decades, and individual aircraft can also have life spans measured in 20-30+ years. The current backlog is around 8500 aircraft, and their current production rate is around 700-800 aircraft per year. Last year they build 570 A320's - so around 48 per month. Airbus' goal is to get to 75 per month by 2026. Aircraft factories are obviously very expensive, and super expanding to burn down the queue right now would probably harm Airbus in the long term, especially since the airliner market is uh... really cyclical. I understand that the current backlog is something of a result of the pandemic.
FabHK 3y ago
Wow, according to Airbus [0], by Feb 2024: A321neo: 1282 delivered (since 2017!), 6169 orders, so 4887 in the queue (or about 25 yrs worth [1]). A320neo: 1929 delivered (since 2014!), 4124 orders, so 2195 in the queue (or about 11 yrs worth). Across all aircraft, 15,276 delivered, and 23,828 ordered, so their outstanding orders are more than half of all Airbus ever delivered (and more than 60% of all Airbus in operation). Must be nice to work for their sales department... [0] https://www.airbus.com/en/products-services/commercial-aircraft/market/orders-and-deliveries https://www.airbus.com/en/products-services/commercial-aircr... [1] with the assumption that the production rate remains the same as since introduction (obviously unrealistic, just to get a rough picture).
deleted 3y ago
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rmvt 3y ago
i wouldn't be surprised if they can get their hands on "2nd hand" a321s from companies that might find they don't need it or they want to shift to another model

gmm1990 3y ago

The mention if its economical so maybe pay someone more than face value further up the line for their planes

electroly 3y ago
Ahh, thank you. That was probably obvious to aviation insiders but I hadn't connected the dots.
RandomBacon 3y ago
Startup idea: instead of ticket scalping, plane scalping.

icegreentea2 3y ago

I don't think they believe they realistically have the ability to jump the queue. But they are publicly announcing their displeasure at Boeing. Like this message is literally saying "we are stuck with our second choice". As a vendor, this is a sign that you're really boned. Maybe this order will go through, but you're going to have to work your butt off after this one.

dylan604 3y ago

Probably court of public opinion noise making for possibly investors?? It's not like they can use it as leverage against Boeing, as Boeing would be well versed in Airbus production capabilities. So, get out in the public to would be arm chair emotional investors to win some over is me being generous in such a lame comment from them.

bombcar 3y ago

How comically long does the queue get before Airbus adds more capacity?

t0mas88 3y ago
Very very very long. More capacity takes huge investments and many years to bring online. Airbus won't do that for a temporary increase in orders. Large airplane orders are always significantly discounted. Airbus has an easy option here, reduce discounts (which rumor is they have already done significantly) and make a lot of money. Let the queue be the queue, they can't add extra capacity in the short term anyway.
icegreentea2 3y ago
Airbus is adding capacity, but the queue will remain long. Aircraft have really long life cycles. A model can remain in production for decades, and individual aircraft can also have life spans measured in 20-30+ years. The current backlog is around 8500 aircraft, and their current production rate is around 700-800 aircraft per year. Last year they build 570 A320's - so around 48 per month. Airbus' goal is to get to 75 per month by 2026. Aircraft factories are obviously very expensive, and super expanding to burn down the queue right now would probably harm Airbus in the long term, especially since the airliner market is uh... really cyclical. I understand that the current backlog is something of a result of the pandemic.

FabHK 3y ago

Wow, according to Airbus [0], by Feb 2024: A321neo: 1282 delivered (since 2017!), 6169 orders, so 4887 in the queue (or about 25 yrs worth [1]). A320neo: 1929 delivered (since 2014!), 4124 orders, so 2195 in the queue (or about 11 yrs worth). Across all aircraft, 15,276 delivered, and 23,828 ordered, so their outstanding orders are more than half of all Airbus ever delivered (and more than 60% of all Airbus in operation). Must be nice to work for their sales department... [0] https://www.airbus.com/en/products-services/commercial-aircraft/market/orders-and-deliveries https://www.airbus.com/en/products-services/commercial-aircr... [1] with the assumption that the production rate remains the same as since introduction (obviously unrealistic, just to get a rough picture).

deleted 3y ago

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rmvt 3y ago

i wouldn't be surprised if they can get their hands on "2nd hand" a321s from companies that might find they don't need it or they want to shift to another model