I think the idea is that instead of trying to argue, just be empirical. New information would have to be added along with context on how that information has im

I think the idea is that instead of trying to argue, just be empirical. New information would have to be added along with context on how that information has impacted odds in the past If the information is entirely new (ie, what impact does aliens taking over the Moon have on China/Taiwan) then there'll always be difficulty estimating that impact