It seems sensible enough. It's not being presented as the One Weird Trick that lets you see the future, just as something simple and obvious that (implication:

It seems sensible enough. It's not being presented as the One Weird Trick that lets you see the future, just as something simple and obvious that (implication: bizarrely) other people who try to predict the future often don't do. So even by just doing very basic things like that, you can end up ahead. Not right, not even most of the time, just more right than other people. We might think that this seems rather obvious, and that's probably true. Samotsvety are being compared to people like IC analysts, politicians and pundits. Not people exactly famous for their firm commitment to rationalism and accountability. If you compared their track record vs top hedge funds it might look a little different, but of course hedge funds don't try to estimate the probabilities of things like a nuke hitting London.