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You're correct it mostly only works for a spread of predictions that don't have such a large influence on each other. If one capital gets nuked the odds of ano
by TOMDM 3y ago
You're correct it mostly only works for a spread of predictions that don't have such a large influence on each other.
If one capital gets nuked the odds of another one suffering the same fate skyrocket.
- dmurray 3y agoYeah, it's just about possible to imagine Kyiv or Tehran gets nuked in a "limited engagement" that never escalates further. But if, say, Lisbon gets nuked then the whole world is at war.