3 ms·
Doesn't seem right, if a state capital city base chance for a nuclear strike is 1% and you have 195 capitals or so 2 of them would be hit by now.
by avereveard 3y ago
Doesn't seem right, if a state capital city base chance for a nuclear strike is 1% and you have 195 capitals or so 2 of them would be hit by now.
- TOMDM 3y agoYou're correct it mostly only works for a spread of predictions that don't have such a large influence on each other. If one capital gets nuked the odds of another one suffering the same fate skyrocket.
- dmurray 3y agoYeah, it's just about possible to imagine Kyiv or Tehran gets nuked in a "limited engagement" that never escalates further. But if, say, Lisbon gets nuked then the whole world is at war.
- cudder 3y agoMaybe your base rate is way off then?
- danmaz74 3y agoNuclear strikes on N different capital cities aren't statistically independent events, and that kind of computation only makes sense for statistically independent events.