Personally I think when I'm in doubt and doing the circling you describe, I'm closer to the truth then when I think my arguments are water tight. Too often I've

Personally I think when I'm in doubt and doing the circling you describe, I'm closer to the truth then when I think my arguments are water tight. Too often I've been so sure, only to be thrown off later. I also think that making a convincing story is more about retorica then logic.