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If I wanted to try my hand at this hobby, what’s the best place to get started?
by bitcurious 3y ago
If I wanted to try my hand at this hobby, what’s the best place to get started?
- lancewiggs 3y agoRead Superforecasters. Look at the two linked-from-article forecasting sites. Look up Adam Braff's blog - he runs an annual forecasting contest. Enter prediction markets. Read up about Brier scores. Try, fail, try and learn.
- mhb 3y agoKalshi, Metaculus.
- brunblanc 3y agoMost superforecasters are retired academics or quants. I wouldn't recommend the investment in time that it would require.
- ornornor 3y agoBut what would be your odds of success? ;)
- NunoSempere 3y agoGood Judgment Open, Metaculus
- jellyberg 3y agoForecasting tournaments: https://www.metaculus.com/ https://www.metaculus.com/ https://www.infer-pub.com/ https://www.infer-pub.com/ Forecasting your own life: https://fatebook.io/ https://fatebook.io/ Training your calibration: https://programs.clearerthinking.org/calibrate_your_judgment.html https://programs.clearerthinking.org/calibrate_your_judgment... https://www.quantifiedintuitions.org/calibration https://www.quantifiedintuitions.org/calibration Books to read: Superforecasting, Scout Mindset