It’s hard to believe after the Crimea annexation anyone forecasted a low likelihood of invasion. In fact my understanding (limited) of the forecasting community

It’s hard to believe after the Crimea annexation anyone forecasted a low likelihood of invasion. In fact my understanding (limited) of the forecasting community consensus is that Ukraine and other neighboring Russian former Soviet nations with strategic access to ports have been considered high risk of invasion for some time. I know the US government has depended on forecasting in intelligence and defense for a long time built on the RAND legacy. I find it hard to believe most other sophisticated nations don’t also do similar forecasting and planning around forecasts given how influential these efforts in the US are.