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I assume the people who are actually the best at predicting world events are making huge sums of money in the stock market. Or posting on /pol on 4chan. Not ent
by IncreasePosts 3y ago
I assume the people who are actually the best at predicting world events are making huge sums of money in the stock market. Or posting on /pol on 4chan. Not entering prediction competitions.
- advael 3y agoThis assumes that prediction of world events tracks stock performance well. Predicting the performance of stocks requires also predicting a lot of the noise in factors like the error in prediction made by other investors, what marketing moves are made by the people who have an interest in the company looking good in a given quarter, the degree to which companies will be manipulated by large-scale investors for reasons orthogonal to that companies ostensible business models... etc. Some quantitative finance algos obviously do well, but it's a different skill from predicting the coarser phenomena we call "world events". Also, if this all basically sounds like the economy is run like a mob casino... yes
- baq 3y agoplenty of people in the stock market make money when they're wrong and lose money when they're right. it's only a game of predicting the future if you're talking about prices.
- wolverine876 3y ago> I assume the people who are actually the best at predicting world events are making huge sums of money in the stock market. Or posting on /pol on 4chan. Why assume that those would be people's highest priorities? If I had some superpower, I would not spend my time using it for either of those things.