In a good prediction market the bets function as binary options, with a payout at 100 for being correct within the time frame. so its more about what price bet

In a good prediction market the bets function as binary options, with a payout at 100 for being correct within the time frame. so its more about what price between 0 and 100 would you bet on that belief at 20 you have a 500% gain if it resolves at 100 and this willingness to bet is telegraphed to the crowd, it doesn't really mean conviction but maps to the crowds aggregate understanding of the probability occurring or not