4 ms·
I'll take the other side of the bet if any will offer. This guy won't be disbarred. Will play on manifold markets or with real money here in SF. Up to maybe $1k
by renewiltord 3y ago
I'll take the other side of the bet if any will offer. This guy won't be disbarred. Will play on manifold markets or with real money here in SF. Up to maybe $1k. They are not at any risk.
- skrebbel 3y agoCynical nihilism may be a good prediction market bet but it doesn’t make a very interesting HN comment.
- throwaway09223 3y agoAccurate is more important than interesting
- panarky 3y agoInterestingness may be in the eye of the beholder, but it's neither cynical nor nihilist to observe what usually happens in situations like this and to make predictions about the future based on observations of the past.
- renewiltord 3y agoIt's not cynical nihilism. There's a lot of things I believe in. Just not this. Many people get this kind of dopamine hit from saying that something is going to happen (similar to the one from telling people you're going to do something). "Twitter is going to fail in 2 weeks" / "Trump will be impeached next month" / "Hunter Biden is going to be jailed". It's traumschadenfreude. Wishcasting is a kind of interesting, yes, but I think truth seeking is more interesting.
- hn_throwaway_99 3y agoMallory McGee is a woman.
- renewiltord 3y agoThank you. Correction appreciated. Updated.