4 ms·

in this case the market is already captured anyway, though. Even microsoft couldn't pierce it.

CharlesW 3y ago
The market was considered captured when Apple and Google entered the market in 2007-2008, too. The reality is that nothing prevents a new entrant from gaining marketshare, especially considering that the vast majority of apps people use every day are associated with services not created by Apple. I wouldn't want to, but I could move to Android tomorrow with relatively little friction.
- realusername 3y ago
  > The reality is that nothing prevents a new entrant from gaining marketshare Nothing except banking apps, messaging apps and government apps... You either support the only semi open standard of apps being Android or your phone cannot succeed outside of some developer tool.
  - verticalscaler 3y ago
    Exactly. But if we suddenly transition to a "recompile to webassembly and ship it as web app" world I assure you $99 ($0 profit) phones will suffice for 90%+ of users. It will take a very long time but that will be the inevitable result.
  - CharlesW 3y ago
    > You either support the only semi open standard of apps being Android or your phone cannot succeed outside of some developer tool. (1) iPhone and Android had exactly the same problem when they launched. (2) Web apps are a thing. (3) This problem would still exist if iOS didn't exist. Again, in 2006 "smartphone" meant Nokia, Blackberry, and Palm. There's simply no such thing as a "captured" market when it comes to consumer goods.
    - realusername 3y ago
      > (1) iPhone and Android had exactly the same problem when they launched. Sure, competitors could have started in 2009, too bad it's 2024 though now. Anyway, the proof is in the pudding, there's no competitor in the past 10 years despite a big revenue potential, that's the reason. > (2) Web apps are a thing. They aren't good enough, and if they were don't worry every company would try to avoid paying the high store tax. (Hence why it's not going to happen) > (3) This problem would still exist if iOS didn't exist. Yes, that's why we need open standards to lower the barrier of competition.
      - CharlesW 3y ago
        > Sure, competitors could have started in 2009, too bad it's 2024 though now. You may be missing the point, which is that today's Apple and Google are as "permanently" entrenched as Nokia, Blackberry, and Palm were back in the day. That is to say, not at all. > Yes, that's why we need open standards to lower the barrier of competition. Many open-source alternatives to iOS and Android have tried and failed to compete. For better or worse, this doesn't appear to matter to mainstream buyers.
        realusername 3y ago
        You're going in circles, we don't need to speculate, we know that no competitor can emerge because they don't despite a huge revenue potential in this sector. The proof is in the pudding as I said anyways, I'll believe there's competition in the mobile space when I'll see it. For now it all looks like it's impossible due to blockers like the apps and others. And yeah maybe smartphones will become obsolete but I'm not going to count on it.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

The market was considered captured when Apple and Google entered the market in 2007-2008, too. The reality is that nothing prevents a new entrant from gaining marketshare, especially considering that the vast majority of apps people use every day are associated with services not created by Apple. I wouldn't want to, but I could move to Android tomorrow with relatively little friction.

realusername 3y ago
> The reality is that nothing prevents a new entrant from gaining marketshare Nothing except banking apps, messaging apps and government apps... You either support the only semi open standard of apps being Android or your phone cannot succeed outside of some developer tool.
- verticalscaler 3y ago
  Exactly. But if we suddenly transition to a "recompile to webassembly and ship it as web app" world I assure you $99 ($0 profit) phones will suffice for 90%+ of users. It will take a very long time but that will be the inevitable result.
- CharlesW 3y ago
  > You either support the only semi open standard of apps being Android or your phone cannot succeed outside of some developer tool. (1) iPhone and Android had exactly the same problem when they launched. (2) Web apps are a thing. (3) This problem would still exist if iOS didn't exist. Again, in 2006 "smartphone" meant Nokia, Blackberry, and Palm. There's simply no such thing as a "captured" market when it comes to consumer goods.
  - realusername 3y ago
    > (1) iPhone and Android had exactly the same problem when they launched. Sure, competitors could have started in 2009, too bad it's 2024 though now. Anyway, the proof is in the pudding, there's no competitor in the past 10 years despite a big revenue potential, that's the reason. > (2) Web apps are a thing. They aren't good enough, and if they were don't worry every company would try to avoid paying the high store tax. (Hence why it's not going to happen) > (3) This problem would still exist if iOS didn't exist. Yes, that's why we need open standards to lower the barrier of competition.
    - CharlesW 3y ago
      > Sure, competitors could have started in 2009, too bad it's 2024 though now. You may be missing the point, which is that today's Apple and Google are as "permanently" entrenched as Nokia, Blackberry, and Palm were back in the day. That is to say, not at all. > Yes, that's why we need open standards to lower the barrier of competition. Many open-source alternatives to iOS and Android have tried and failed to compete. For better or worse, this doesn't appear to matter to mainstream buyers.
      - realusername 3y ago
        You're going in circles, we don't need to speculate, we know that no competitor can emerge because they don't despite a huge revenue potential in this sector. The proof is in the pudding as I said anyways, I'll believe there's competition in the mobile space when I'll see it. For now it all looks like it's impossible due to blockers like the apps and others. And yeah maybe smartphones will become obsolete but I'm not going to count on it.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]